***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.10.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 1.3 0.3 1.8 14.2 26.7 16.1 0.9 8.9 17.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 0.5 0.3 2.4 20.6 27.5 18.3 0.5 3.0 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 87 13 0 100 1.1 0.5 1.7 14.0 23.6 15.5 1.0 7.4 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 93 7 0 100 0.6 0.6 1.3 9.9 20.1 13.2 2.2 4.8 11.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 91 9 0 100 0.4 0.7 1.5 12.2 22.6 14.2 1.9 4.4 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 92 8 0 100 0.3 0.1 1.2 9.1 20.1 11.1 0.8 3.5 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 0.6 0.2 2.2 19.1 26.8 18.6 0.7 2.8 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 88 12 0 100 1.9 2.4 2.0 14.2 22.2 15.4 6.1 7.8 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 89 11 0 100 1.2 0.7 1.5 12.1 20.1 15.0 2.6 6.9 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 87 13 0 100 2.0 1.4 1.9 13.7 20.6 15.0 3.8 8.0 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 85 15 0 100 1.1 2.1 1.7 13.5 25.3 16.6 2.4 7.3 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 90 10 0 100 1.0 1.1 1.6 12.7 23.9 15.7 2.1 6.4 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 93 7 0 100 0.5 0.1 1.6 11.8 22.1 15.2 1.3 7.0 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 84 16 0 100 2.7 1.5 2.5 18.3 21.0 16.2 7.6 13.1 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 0.5 0.4 1.0 7.9 25.2 15.9 0.9 3.5 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 91 9 0 100 0.4 0.9 1.6 12.0 22.7 13.7 2.9 4.1 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 0.4 0.5 2.7 23.5 29.2 19.9 0.6 1.8 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 87 13 0 100 1.0 0.5 2.3 15.6 19.1 15.1 3.9 6.1 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 85 15 0 100 1.3 0.3 2.3 19.7 25.8 17.4 1.2 8.9 19.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 89 11 0 100 1.0 0.6 2.8 17.1 21.1 15.0 3.9 6.6 17.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 86 14 0 100 0.8 0.8 1.6 12.8 22.3 14.8 1.8 4.1 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 1.1 0.5 3.3 28.5 30.6 20.3 0.6 4.9 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 89 11 0 100 1.0 0.7 1.9 16.0 22.3 16.2 1.9 8.1 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 86 14 0 100 2.2 1.1 2.1 15.5 20.8 15.9 3.4 10.0 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 0.3 0.4 1.7 12.5 22.8 14.0 1.2 1.8 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 93 7 0 100 0.4 0.1 1.1 8.8 22.4 13.7 0.9 6.3 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 83 17 0 100 0.8 0.3 1.9 14.5 25.3 16.0 1.4 4.7 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 91 9 0 100 0.6 0.5 1.2 9.2 22.3 14.3 2.0 5.3 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 89 11 0 100 2.5 1.8 2.5 16.5 19.2 14.6 4.9 11.6 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 85 15 0 100 0.9 0.3 2.2 19.2 26.3 17.5 0.8 6.2 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------