***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.1 12.5 0.4 52.5 54.5 11.1 11.9 13.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.6 12.6 0.5 54.5 55.3 10.3 11.3 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 12.9 12.4 13.0 0.5 53.0 55.0 10.8 12.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.3 10.1 0.3 54.7 53.2 4.9 6.0 6.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.8 11.0 0.3 52.7 53.7 10.5 12.7 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.5 11.4 10.3 0.3 48.5 52.9 10.1 11.8 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.5 12.5 0.5 54.6 55.5 10.1 11.1 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.3 10.6 0.7 53.5 56.5 3.5 5.0 6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.3 11.8 0.5 52.1 54.6 10.8 13.2 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.7 13.0 11.3 0.6 53.4 55.6 9.9 12.3 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.2 12.8 11.2 0.5 53.8 55.1 10.7 12.6 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.6 11.2 0.7 52.4 57.1 10.0 12.3 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.0 10.8 0.6 51.6 55.9 10.5 12.0 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.2 12.3 0.7 54.6 55.6 10.8 12.4 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 11.6 11.5 10.6 0.2 53.5 52.1 9.5 11.3 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.4 11.0 0.5 53.1 55.0 11.3 13.0 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.0 12.3 0.5 54.2 54.7 9.4 10.7 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.8 11.4 0.8 55.5 56.3 8.6 11.2 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.8 12.9 0.6 54.1 55.6 10.7 11.2 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.5 9.5 0.9 55.9 57.3 7.3 9.6 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.0 12.2 0.4 51.0 53.6 10.4 13.0 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 12.1 11.6 12.3 0.4 52.8 54.4 9.7 11.5 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 12.2 11.9 13.2 0.7 54.6 56.2 10.6 11.4 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.7 12.3 0.7 55.4 55.8 11.2 13.4 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.6 11.0 0.3 50.9 53.3 9.9 11.5 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.4 11.8 10.8 0.9 53.6 57.9 10.8 11.7 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 12.7 12.4 12.0 0.4 51.9 54.4 11.0 12.2 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.8 10.4 0.2 53.6 52.5 9.8 11.0 12.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.4 10.7 0.8 55.5 56.3 5.7 8.9 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.6 12.6 0.5 54.0 55.3 10.3 11.3 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------