***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.10.2017.-05.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.2 16.2 15.0 1.5 65.9 63.6 11.8 14.5 16.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 15.8 15.5 15.1 1.6 68.5 64.9 12.2 13.8 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 15.1 17.3 15.5 1.6 67.5 64.5 12.2 14.3 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 11.2 12.0 12.9 1.7 68.6 65.3 6.7 9.1 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 15.5 16.1 13.6 1.4 64.8 63.1 12.5 14.8 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.5 12.3 1.0 58.9 58.5 12.5 14.2 16.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 15.6 15.0 15.0 1.5 67.8 64.7 11.5 13.6 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 8.1 8.7 12.7 1.3 63.4 61.6 5.9 7.5 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 15.5 17.0 14.4 1.6 65.4 63.6 12.7 14.8 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 16.7 17.1 13.5 1.5 63.8 62.4 11.6 14.2 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.6 17.0 13.6 1.4 64.0 62.2 12.5 14.8 17.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 16.6 16.7 13.3 1.4 64.6 62.7 12.3 14.0 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 16.9 16.4 12.9 1.2 61.6 60.8 12.9 14.2 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.8 17.5 14.6 1.5 63.0 62.0 10.9 13.6 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 14.9 15.0 13.4 1.7 68.7 65.7 12.5 14.0 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.9 17.2 13.3 1.3 62.6 61.9 13.5 15.1 18.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 14.8 14.7 14.8 1.5 67.8 64.3 11.1 12.9 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.9 15.3 13.5 1.5 62.9 61.8 10.8 13.0 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 16.0 16.0 15.4 1.7 69.4 65.0 11.9 13.9 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.6 11.2 1.1 60.2 59.9 10.6 12.6 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 15.0 16.7 14.8 1.5 64.8 63.1 12.5 14.3 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 15.8 15.6 14.8 1.4 67.1 63.8 11.0 13.4 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 14.1 16.5 15.7 1.7 69.6 65.0 11.6 13.2 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.2 17.9 14.7 1.6 65.0 63.0 12.2 14.2 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.6 13.4 1.4 64.5 62.9 12.3 13.8 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 16.8 16.1 12.9 1.6 66.8 65.6 13.2 14.8 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.2 16.4 14.3 1.4 64.7 63.0 12.4 14.6 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 16.1 15.9 13.2 1.7 67.4 64.8 12.4 14.1 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.8 12.6 1.2 60.6 59.9 7.5 11.6 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 15.7 15.7 15.1 1.6 69.1 64.8 11.8 13.9 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------