***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 17.4 17.6 16.7 1.6 70.2 65.5 13.4 15.3 17.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 17.0 17.3 16.7 1.6 68.1 65.0 13.6 15.1 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 17.8 17.8 17.2 1.7 69.1 65.2 14.5 16.3 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 11.3 11.8 14.6 2.2 73.8 69.7 7.1 8.5 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 17.8 18.1 15.4 1.6 69.4 64.4 13.9 16.0 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 17.1 17.0 13.8 1.2 62.7 60.5 13.2 15.0 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 17.1 17.3 16.6 1.6 68.8 65.0 13.3 14.8 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 9.1 8.2 14.2 1.5 65.1 63.6 5.9 7.4 8.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 18.5 18.7 16.4 1.8 71.6 65.9 14.4 16.2 18.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 17.9 17.8 15.1 1.6 66.7 63.8 14.1 16.0 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 18.1 17.9 15.7 1.5 67.9 63.8 14.1 16.4 17.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 17.8 17.5 15.0 1.6 67.6 64.9 13.5 15.3 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 16.7 17.8 14.9 1.2 62.9 61.1 14.1 16.0 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 18.2 18.2 16.2 1.5 66.6 62.8 14.5 15.8 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 16.5 16.9 16.2 2.4 76.3 72.8 13.6 14.6 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 19.0 18.9 15.2 1.5 67.6 63.8 14.1 16.7 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 16.6 17.2 16.3 1.5 69.4 64.9 13.0 14.7 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 17.1 16.7 14.7 1.5 65.3 62.8 13.6 15.2 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 17.6 18.1 17.0 1.7 69.6 65.8 13.3 15.7 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 14.5 13.5 12.7 1.3 62.0 61.6 10.9 12.5 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 18.0 18.0 16.7 1.6 70.1 64.3 14.4 16.2 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 17.6 17.8 16.3 1.4 68.3 63.9 13.5 15.8 16.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 17.6 18.2 17.4 2.0 73.1 67.4 14.0 15.7 17.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 18.1 18.1 16.3 1.6 66.7 63.8 15.1 16.1 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 16.7 17.2 15.5 1.5 69.7 64.6 13.1 14.8 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 17.9 17.4 14.3 1.7 69.0 66.0 14.1 15.2 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 17.4 17.5 16.1 1.5 69.3 64.6 14.2 15.0 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 16.6 17.1 15.3 2.2 73.9 69.7 13.8 14.6 16.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 13.2 12.4 13.9 1.3 62.3 60.9 9.8 11.7 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 17.0 17.6 16.8 1.6 69.0 65.2 13.4 14.8 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------