***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.10.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 19.5 19.9 21.1 4.8 85.3 85.5 14.8 17.2 18.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 18.9 19.5 21.2 4.8 87.4 86.5 15.5 17.5 18.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 19.6 19.9 21.5 4.9 84.8 84.6 16.4 18.1 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 12.9 14.7 19.0 5.6 90.0 88.7 9.1 10.2 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 20.0 20.5 19.8 4.8 82.6 83.6 17.0 18.0 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 19.4 20.7 17.9 4.5 82.0 81.9 15.7 16.7 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 18.7 19.2 21.1 4.8 86.6 86.4 15.0 17.4 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 9 91 100 10.8 11.6 18.4 4.8 84.5 83.6 7.2 8.8 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 20.4 20.7 20.8 5.0 84.9 85.6 16.9 18.1 19.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 19.7 20.2 19.4 4.9 83.3 82.9 16.5 17.2 18.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 20.3 21.0 20.0 4.6 80.4 81.3 16.6 17.9 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 20.2 21.5 19.0 4.8 84.8 83.9 16.1 17.5 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 20.9 21.3 19.2 3.9 78.2 77.6 16.7 18.3 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 19.8 20.5 20.7 4.8 83.4 83.6 16.4 18.5 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 18.2 19.4 21.0 5.6 92.9 91.1 15.0 16.3 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 21.3 22.1 19.4 4.5 81.5 81.9 17.3 18.5 19.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 18.5 19.2 20.8 4.9 88.7 87.7 14.3 17.0 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 18.9 19.4 19.1 5.1 84.6 84.7 15.4 17.1 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 19.1 19.6 21.6 5.1 88.6 87.5 15.8 17.5 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 16.7 18.2 17.3 5.0 87.6 86.4 12.4 14.5 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 20.0 20.4 21.3 4.8 82.5 83.5 16.9 17.8 19.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 19.2 19.4 20.6 4.4 86.3 85.4 14.9 17.4 18.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 3 97 100 18.8 20.6 22.3 5.7 92.6 90.9 16.2 17.6 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 20.1 20.8 20.8 5.0 84.3 84.2 16.0 18.6 19.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 18.6 19.1 20.1 4.7 84.3 84.0 16.2 17.1 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 19.9 20.9 18.6 5.0 87.5 87.5 15.7 17.7 18.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 19.6 20.4 20.6 4.7 85.3 85.2 17.0 17.7 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 19.5 20.4 19.7 5.3 88.4 87.5 14.5 17.5 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 16.3 17.3 18.4 5.0 86.2 85.3 11.7 13.3 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 18.7 19.7 21.3 4.8 86.3 85.8 15.9 17.5 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------