***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.10.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 5.6 5.6 7.9 1.0 70.1 66.0 4.0 5.0 5.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 5.3 5.5 7.6 1.1 72.8 68.0 3.8 4.5 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 7.1 7.2 8.0 1.2 74.1 69.4 6.1 6.7 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 2.4 2.6 5.4 1.3 77.5 71.0 1.0 1.5 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 4.6 4.5 5.8 1.0 69.8 65.9 3.2 3.9 4.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 3.9 3.7 3.5 0.7 65.8 63.0 2.7 3.0 3.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 5.1 5.3 7.6 1.1 72.1 67.5 3.8 4.4 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 0.3 0.3 3.8 0.9 67.3 64.9 -1.4 -0.9 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 5.4 5.6 5.9 0.9 70.4 66.0 4.3 4.7 5.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 5.1 5.1 4.6 0.9 69.0 65.8 3.9 4.3 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 4.7 4.9 5.0 0.8 66.6 64.0 3.2 4.1 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 4.0 3.4 4.3 0.7 65.5 63.4 2.7 3.0 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 3.9 3.8 3.9 0.4 60.4 58.5 3.0 3.6 4.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 5.8 5.8 5.9 1.0 72.4 67.4 4.8 5.1 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 5.1 5.4 6.5 1.3 80.3 73.2 3.5 4.5 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.3 4.5 0.7 64.7 62.0 4.4 4.6 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 5.2 5.3 7.4 1.1 73.3 68.4 4.0 4.6 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 3.7 3.6 4.0 1.0 68.4 66.1 2.9 3.1 3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 5.3 5.4 7.7 1.2 74.0 69.3 3.9 4.7 5.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 1.0 0.9 2.7 0.9 65.2 64.2 -0.4 0.2 0.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 4.9 5.0 7.1 1.0 70.7 65.9 4.0 4.4 4.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 4.6 4.7 7.4 1.1 73.2 68.7 3.4 4.0 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 5.1 5.3 7.6 1.3 76.4 71.2 4.0 4.6 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 4.9 4.5 5.7 1.0 72.1 67.9 3.7 4.2 4.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 5.4 5.6 6.8 1.0 69.7 65.7 4.2 4.7 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 4.0 4.2 3.8 0.6 62.8 60.8 3.4 3.7 4.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 5.7 5.3 7.4 0.9 67.7 64.5 3.8 4.9 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 3.6 3.8 5.5 1.2 76.5 70.8 2.1 2.9 3.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 3.6 3.1 3.4 0.9 65.2 64.5 2.0 2.7 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 5.5 5.6 7.8 1.1 72.3 68.1 4.0 4.8 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------