***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.1 3.3 5.5 0.0 51.6 51.1 2.4 3.2 5.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 0.6 2.9 5.1 0.1 50.8 52.0 1.6 2.7 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 5.6 5.2 5.5 0.2 54.0 53.6 3.9 5.0 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -2.4 -0.6 2.6 0.0 49.5 49.8 -1.6 -0.6 0.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 0.4 2.3 2.9 -0.1 49.2 49.4 0.8 2.3 3.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 -0.3 1.6 1.2 0.1 49.8 51.3 0.3 1.6 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 0.9 2.9 5.1 0.0 49.0 50.7 1.9 3.0 4.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -4.3 -1.8 1.5 0.1 50.0 51.3 -3.3 -1.8 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 3.8 3.1 3.4 -0.1 51.1 50.5 2.4 3.0 4.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 3.2 2.5 2.1 0.0 50.5 51.1 1.5 2.5 3.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 0.5 2.2 2.3 -0.1 48.5 49.5 1.6 2.3 4.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 -0.3 1.2 1.8 -0.1 48.8 50.2 0.6 1.3 3.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 0.0 1.9 1.5 -0.2 47.4 49.5 0.6 2.0 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 2.1 3.8 3.5 0.1 55.2 52.5 2.8 3.5 4.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 1.2 2.6 3.6 0.1 50.8 51.1 1.5 2.6 3.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 1.3 3.2 1.9 -0.1 48.0 49.1 2.2 3.3 4.5 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.2 2.9 4.9 0.0 47.8 50.7 1.7 3.0 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 1.9 1.5 1.6 0.1 51.9 51.5 0.2 1.4 2.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 1.2 3.3 5.2 0.2 53.0 53.2 1.8 3.1 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -0.8 -1.7 0.4 0.2 52.0 52.2 -2.8 -1.8 1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 1.0 3.0 4.6 0.0 51.6 51.6 1.9 2.9 3.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 1.1 2.7 4.9 0.1 50.3 52.4 1.4 2.7 3.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 3.4 3.1 5.1 0.2 55.2 54.0 1.7 2.8 4.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 3.1 2.6 3.1 0.1 54.1 52.2 1.6 2.5 3.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 1.2 2.9 4.2 0.0 51.3 50.5 1.5 2.8 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 0.6 2.0 1.3 -0.2 44.8 49.3 0.7 2.4 4.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 0.7 2.5 4.9 -0.1 49.7 50.0 1.5 2.5 4.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 -0.4 1.2 2.6 0.0 48.7 49.7 0.2 1.2 2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 1.7 1.2 1.3 0.2 52.2 51.7 -0.8 1.0 2.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 1.3 3.2 5.3 0.1 50.8 52.2 2.1 3.1 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------