***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.10.2017.-05.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.5 7.3 0.9 61.2 58.7 3.4 5.0 6.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 5.6 5.0 7.0 0.9 60.8 60.1 2.5 3.8 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 7.8 7.3 7.4 1.1 63.7 61.7 4.9 6.6 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 2.2 2.2 4.4 0.8 61.5 58.9 0.0 1.6 3.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 4.2 4.5 4.8 0.7 59.7 57.6 1.6 3.6 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 2.9 3.3 2.8 0.5 55.8 55.2 0.3 2.1 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 5.3 5.0 7.0 0.8 59.2 58.9 2.5 4.0 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -1.9 0.5 3.0 0.6 55.1 56.1 -1.7 0.1 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 6.5 5.5 5.3 0.8 59.9 58.4 2.7 4.8 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 4.5 4.4 3.8 0.7 57.1 57.2 2.4 3.6 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 0.8 4.1 4.1 0.6 56.8 56.3 1.7 3.1 5.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 0.0 3.0 3.4 0.5 55.8 55.6 0.9 1.9 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 3.2 2.5 3.1 0.4 53.9 53.7 0.4 2.4 5.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 6.3 5.7 5.4 1.0 63.5 60.6 3.4 4.8 6.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 5.9 4.9 5.5 1.0 62.5 61.4 2.2 4.3 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.3 3.6 0.5 55.5 55.4 2.3 3.9 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 5.4 5.3 6.9 0.9 60.4 59.9 3.4 3.9 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 0.6 3.2 3.2 0.8 56.9 57.2 1.1 1.8 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 5.7 5.1 7.1 1.0 62.1 61.1 2.7 4.4 5.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 0.2 -0.8 1.7 0.5 51.6 54.7 -1.8 -0.8 1.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 5.9 5.5 6.5 0.9 61.3 59.5 1.9 4.6 5.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 5.1 4.7 6.8 1.0 61.7 61.5 2.4 3.5 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 5.6 5.2 7.0 1.1 63.4 62.0 2.4 4.5 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 5.1 4.7 5.0 1.0 61.7 60.4 2.3 3.7 5.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.0 5.8 5.9 0.8 60.9 57.9 2.4 4.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 0.9 2.3 2.8 0.3 52.5 52.8 1.0 2.1 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 1.9 5.7 6.7 0.8 60.6 57.9 2.7 4.7 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 3.1 4.0 4.6 0.9 61.3 59.7 0.7 2.4 4.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 -0.1 2.1 2.8 0.7 54.7 56.2 0.6 1.8 4.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.1 5.5 7.1 0.9 60.6 60.0 2.7 4.5 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------