***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.9 8.4 1.0 61.0 59.5 3.4 5.0 6.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.4 6.4 8.1 1.0 64.8 60.4 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.7 8.5 1.1 62.5 60.8 5.5 6.9 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 3.1 3.4 5.7 1.0 61.8 60.8 0.2 2.6 3.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 4.9 5.0 6.3 0.7 58.1 57.0 3.1 4.5 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 4.1 4.0 3.7 0.4 53.5 54.0 2.1 3.6 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 6.7 6.5 8.2 1.2 66.6 61.5 2.4 4.9 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 0.7 0.1 4.0 0.4 52.6 54.1 -1.6 0.0 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.0 6.5 6.5 0.9 59.9 58.4 3.6 5.7 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 5.4 6.0 4.9 0.6 55.9 55.9 3.0 5.0 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.0 5.5 5.6 0.6 55.4 55.3 2.8 4.6 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 4.4 4.3 4.7 0.4 51.5 53.8 2.3 4.0 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 4.6 4.3 4.4 0.2 50.2 51.2 2.6 4.3 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 5.8 6.5 6.4 1.0 58.6 59.6 4.2 5.3 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 5.8 6.0 7.2 1.3 69.1 66.2 2.9 4.6 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.1 6.3 5.0 0.4 54.5 54.1 4.3 5.7 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 6.4 6.9 8.0 1.2 66.7 61.7 3.4 4.7 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 4.1 3.7 4.4 0.6 54.1 56.0 2.2 3.5 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 6.5 6.6 8.1 1.1 64.8 60.9 2.9 4.7 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 1.8 1.5 2.8 0.3 50.4 52.3 -1.2 1.5 2.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 5.9 6.2 7.6 0.8 58.9 58.3 2.9 5.7 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 5.8 6.2 8.0 1.1 66.2 61.7 2.4 4.2 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 6.1 6.5 8.1 1.2 64.9 62.3 3.2 4.7 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 5.1 5.5 6.3 0.9 57.6 59.2 3.0 4.7 5.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 5.9 6.1 7.4 0.8 58.2 58.1 4.2 5.5 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.0 4.3 0.3 49.8 52.9 2.7 5.0 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.2 7.9 0.9 59.6 58.2 4.1 5.6 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 4.3 5.0 6.0 1.0 62.8 61.7 1.5 4.0 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 3.5 3.0 3.7 0.5 52.2 54.5 1.3 2.8 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 7.1 7.1 8.3 1.1 64.8 60.7 3.2 5.1 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------