***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-11.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 42.5 51.4 55.2 109.5 62.6 54.9 23.2 36.0 53.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 41.6 45.3 52.0 111.9 62.8 55.7 20.9 36.3 48.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 44.9 47.4 53.1 106.4 62.4 54.7 25.3 37.8 49.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 26.1 57.9 64.0 113.4 66.6 57.3 29.4 41.9 57.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 44.0 46.2 55.3 104.9 61.8 53.7 28.1 38.4 47.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 39.1 37.3 53.6 103.2 60.3 53.0 21.1 34.8 37.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 30.4 39.7 52.1 112.3 60.4 55.8 19.4 23.8 45.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 51.9 70.3 60.1 106.4 63.1 55.4 30.8 44.6 71.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 40.7 41.9 52.9 99.1 58.6 51.3 24.3 37.0 45.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 48.4 49.4 56.9 101.0 60.0 52.5 31.0 43.6 53.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 39.9 40.4 54.3 103.8 61.3 53.3 22.2 33.3 50.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 35.7 46.8 55.2 105.9 62.4 54.9 22.4 27.5 50.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 42.5 49.1 58.1 109.1 64.1 55.7 25.7 38.9 49.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 62.3 67.1 62.6 104.4 60.3 52.7 43.7 56.8 71.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 32.9 44.5 68.3 120.6 69.8 60.1 15.5 25.9 39.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 35.6 40.7 56.0 108.8 64.8 55.2 20.7 28.5 42.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 36.6 51.8 52.7 115.4 63.0 56.8 20.2 28.0 65.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 45.9 47.9 58.7 99.5 59.6 52.0 31.2 41.0 51.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 45.8 52.1 52.2 109.8 62.7 55.0 27.0 36.4 53.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 59.9 62.6 74.6 108.1 65.0 56.9 35.9 52.7 63.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 42.7 43.6 53.6 103.8 61.3 53.4 21.1 35.4 47.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 46.8 57.3 54.8 114.7 63.9 56.4 24.9 40.5 58.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 52.4 50.6 53.3 106.1 61.8 54.0 31.2 44.4 60.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 47.7 48.9 56.4 100.6 60.2 51.9 39.5 43.1 55.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 42.8 46.5 61.7 113.2 63.2 56.1 17.5 32.4 52.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 45.5 43.8 65.2 120.2 70.2 62.2 28.1 36.8 42.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 40.3 43.6 58.2 111.4 62.7 55.0 20.6 33.9 51.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 37.3 42.4 60.7 113.2 67.1 57.1 16.1 34.5 42.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 66.9 68.8 63.2 102.0 60.2 53.3 45.0 58.3 76.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 35.3 45.0 52.3 109.5 62.6 55.1 22.4 29.3 45.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------