***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.4 12.0 13.6 112.6 66.6 51.7 1.4 6.6 11.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.9 8.3 12.0 102.2 62.6 51.6 1.0 3.3 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.8 12.4 12.1 96.2 61.9 49.8 0.8 5.3 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 7.2 10.9 14.9 108.5 67.5 53.7 2.3 4.8 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 7.1 9.3 12.3 92.2 60.3 49.8 0.5 4.5 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.1 11.7 95.5 63.0 52.4 0.5 2.7 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.9 9.4 12.3 106.9 64.5 51.8 0.5 3.8 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.5 11.9 86.6 57.7 50.3 1.4 6.7 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.3 8.8 12.3 88.8 59.0 48.3 0.7 5.3 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.1 9.5 12.1 85.6 57.2 48.9 0.6 6.1 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.7 8.1 11.0 87.9 58.5 49.4 0.3 5.5 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.6 11.0 89.1 59.8 49.8 0.7 5.0 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.8 5.8 12.2 98.2 61.4 50.9 0.2 4.7 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 13.4 13.6 13.1 84.3 57.4 47.8 3.0 10.5 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.2 6.3 15.8 112.0 69.3 55.7 0.5 2.0 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 4.1 5.9 11.7 96.7 62.3 51.4 0.1 2.2 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.3 8.9 11.6 103.6 64.5 52.2 0.9 3.8 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 9.2 9.0 12.4 82.5 56.0 48.1 2.5 7.5 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.8 6.7 11.7 97.3 61.2 51.1 1.1 4.4 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 7.9 7.0 14.8 85.5 56.1 50.4 1.0 5.1 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.5 9.4 13.0 99.9 62.2 50.3 0.8 7.2 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 6.4 12.5 11.4 96.1 61.6 51.3 0.7 3.5 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.2 7.4 11.5 89.9 60.1 49.8 1.9 4.2 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.5 10.9 12.1 82.4 56.2 47.7 1.7 9.2 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 7.5 10.1 16.2 123.0 69.9 53.4 2.2 4.8 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.6 13.7 106.9 65.2 53.8 0.4 2.9 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.8 11.6 15.0 120.6 69.3 51.9 0.6 5.8 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 4.7 6.7 13.1 100.8 66.9 53.4 0.4 2.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 15.2 15.8 13.1 83.1 55.9 49.0 3.3 12.5 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.8 12.1 99.6 62.3 50.7 1.0 3.9 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------