***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2018.-28.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9.3 8.8 19.8 143.4 71.6 61.7 1.7 2.9 5.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.2 11.5 18.0 139.0 72.9 61.2 1.0 3.3 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 7.1 12.2 19.5 146.9 72.7 61.4 1.9 4.9 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 6.6 16.6 21.7 141.9 73.0 63.4 1.4 4.5 13.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 7.2 14.9 19.4 134.3 70.6 60.9 2.5 5.7 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 5.4 10.4 19.5 135.3 72.0 60.8 0.5 3.2 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.5 8.5 18.1 140.3 73.0 61.3 1.7 4.1 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 10.9 19.1 21.4 143.9 74.2 63.3 2.8 9.0 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 6.8 9.3 18.7 134.5 70.2 60.3 2.1 6.0 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 8.1 12.3 20.2 136.8 71.5 60.5 2.7 6.4 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 6.1 10.9 19.6 132.3 72.0 59.9 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 5.0 8.5 19.8 140.6 73.4 62.7 1.1 4.1 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 8.0 10.1 21.3 147.0 75.0 63.9 1.9 4.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.2 20.8 23.1 142.8 73.2 61.0 2.8 8.1 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 5.6 13.0 22.5 147.6 76.0 65.3 1.5 4.0 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 5.3 12.2 20.0 141.5 74.6 62.9 2.1 3.2 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 4.4 12.7 18.2 139.1 73.1 61.2 1.1 2.3 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.4 15.2 21.7 142.6 73.6 61.6 1.4 7.3 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.1 13.7 18.6 140.9 72.4 61.4 1.1 4.2 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 12.9 19.2 27.2 150.9 78.9 65.7 2.0 5.3 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 7.2 11.9 19.1 141.9 71.6 60.8 1.8 5.5 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 12.6 16.5 19.9 147.0 73.5 62.6 2.6 5.6 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.7 20.7 19.9 142.6 73.0 61.4 1.6 6.4 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.4 12.4 21.1 141.8 71.8 60.3 2.4 6.2 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 3.5 7.4 21.8 143.4 71.3 62.4 0.5 2.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 12.9 17.8 24.6 161.0 77.5 66.3 1.2 4.2 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 4.7 6.0 20.9 142.7 72.1 61.8 1.0 2.3 4.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 5.7 10.9 20.6 141.5 74.0 63.0 2.0 4.3 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 16.9 17.4 23.4 145.4 75.4 62.8 2.3 8.3 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 9.5 11.0 18.6 142.0 74.0 61.5 0.5 4.3 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------