***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 2.4 4.7 7.0 58.1 43.6 36.4 2.7 6.2 15.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.8 4.4 7.1 68.1 49.9 37.5 0.5 4.4 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 3.1 4.2 7.0 60.4 44.6 36.6 1.3 8.4 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 2.6 5.0 7.7 55.5 45.4 36.2 3.2 6.7 15.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 2.7 5.5 7.0 57.9 44.6 36.0 1.7 8.2 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 1.2 2.8 6.7 50.8 46.6 35.4 1.0 3.4 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 1.5 3.4 6.8 63.7 48.7 38.4 0.9 3.8 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 4.9 10.1 9.4 64.4 49.9 38.5 5.3 10.2 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 2.9 6.7 6.7 54.5 41.7 35.8 4.5 7.8 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 4.7 10.3 8.2 60.6 46.9 36.6 2.8 10.9 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 3.7 9.2 7.2 56.7 47.2 35.5 2.0 10.0 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.1 7.5 8.2 60.0 48.5 37.6 1.6 7.6 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 3.2 7.0 8.0 57.7 47.0 36.0 1.1 8.0 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 6.0 12.2 9.5 72.3 48.1 38.4 7.8 14.7 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 1.1 3.4 7.1 54.3 52.3 37.5 1.0 3.1 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.6 5.7 7.4 56.0 47.3 35.7 1.3 6.6 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 0.7 1.7 7.3 71.0 49.6 39.8 0.6 1.8 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 3.4 5.3 8.7 61.2 45.2 36.7 3.8 7.9 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.9 9.0 7.0 66.2 48.7 36.3 3.3 9.3 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.3 10.5 11.1 69.1 51.9 40.6 2.9 9.0 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 2.3 2.4 6.8 54.7 41.8 36.1 2.0 6.0 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.6 5.5 7.6 72.8 48.9 39.8 0.6 5.6 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.4 7.5 6.9 61.6 45.5 35.3 2.4 8.2 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 4.8 11.3 8.0 63.4 45.9 35.6 3.4 13.8 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 1.4 1.7 7.1 55.4 41.6 34.8 1.4 4.0 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.9 8.6 9.1 67.7 57.6 41.8 0.5 6.1 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.0 4.6 7.0 56.2 44.2 35.0 2.4 5.2 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 1.8 5.2 7.2 55.1 49.7 36.8 3.0 5.3 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 6.1 12.4 9.6 65.8 47.5 38.4 6.1 13.4 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.5 6.2 6.8 63.7 48.0 37.2 1.2 6.8 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------