***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2018.-11.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 13.9 13.4 13.4 1.5 64.4 62.6 11.3 12.4 13.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 13.3 12.4 13.3 1.5 63.4 62.2 10.6 11.5 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 15.0 13.0 13.7 1.5 62.1 62.0 11.1 12.6 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 7.4 7.1 10.8 1.4 63.8 61.4 4.7 6.5 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 14.3 13.2 11.8 1.4 62.7 61.1 11.1 12.5 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.5 13.0 11.3 1.6 59.5 61.5 9.7 11.8 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 13.4 12.4 13.3 1.6 65.3 62.6 10.2 11.7 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 6.0 6.2 11.0 1.3 56.3 60.2 3.3 5.6 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 13.9 13.9 12.4 1.3 59.8 60.4 11.3 13.2 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 12.9 13.1 11.7 1.3 56.8 59.7 10.7 12.5 13.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 14.8 13.9 12.0 1.5 61.5 62.2 11.0 12.6 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 14.3 13.5 11.7 1.6 60.5 62.8 10.4 12.6 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 14.3 13.7 11.6 1.7 61.2 63.1 10.6 12.2 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 13.5 12.8 12.5 1.1 55.6 58.2 11.3 12.6 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 11.7 12.0 11.4 1.4 64.5 62.0 10.5 11.5 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 14.8 14.6 11.9 1.7 62.3 63.0 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 12.5 12.1 13.0 1.3 62.4 61.0 10.2 10.9 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 11.8 11.4 11.6 1.3 55.2 58.8 9.5 11.2 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 14.0 12.5 13.4 1.5 62.5 61.8 11.0 11.8 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 10.3 9.7 9.5 1.0 52.5 56.9 7.9 9.6 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.5 13.3 12.9 1.3 60.2 60.6 11.0 12.8 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 12.1 13.0 12.8 1.2 61.4 60.1 10.6 11.4 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.5 13.6 1.4 60.8 60.9 10.9 11.7 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.2 12.6 1.3 57.5 59.5 12.0 13.0 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 13.2 12.3 11.7 1.3 60.7 61.0 10.2 11.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 12.8 13.5 11.3 1.7 60.2 64.2 10.9 12.2 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 14.2 13.4 12.8 1.5 63.3 62.3 10.6 12.5 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.3 11.2 1.5 63.5 61.6 10.3 11.8 12.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 9.4 9.3 10.9 1.2 54.0 58.1 6.6 8.6 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 13.7 12.6 13.4 1.6 64.9 62.9 10.1 11.9 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------