***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 17.0 17.3 15.4 2.0 70.7 67.7 12.5 14.8 16.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 15.9 16.5 15.3 2.0 72.5 67.4 12.7 13.7 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 17.3 18.2 15.7 2.0 70.5 67.2 12.2 14.9 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 11.9 11.8 13.0 2.0 68.7 67.2 6.7 9.4 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 17.1 16.7 13.8 1.9 66.3 65.3 12.8 14.9 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 17.6 16.0 12.8 1.9 66.3 65.1 13.3 14.7 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 15.7 15.8 15.4 2.1 73.3 67.9 12.5 13.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 9.7 8.3 12.6 1.5 62.9 63.1 6.2 7.5 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 17.4 17.0 14.3 1.8 65.8 64.8 12.4 15.1 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 17.1 17.4 13.5 1.7 63.5 63.6 12.1 14.5 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 17.7 17.5 13.8 1.9 66.9 65.4 12.6 15.2 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 17.7 17.5 13.4 1.7 65.9 65.0 12.7 14.7 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 17.8 17.2 13.2 1.8 66.4 65.2 13.2 15.0 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 16.2 18.5 14.4 1.6 63.5 62.9 10.9 15.4 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 15.7 15.6 13.6 2.1 71.8 69.2 12.9 14.4 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 18.4 17.7 13.7 2.0 68.0 66.2 13.8 15.6 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 14.7 15.0 15.0 1.9 70.8 66.4 12.1 13.0 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 15.7 15.9 13.3 1.6 61.8 62.6 11.3 13.8 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 16.4 17.1 15.5 2.0 71.9 67.1 12.3 14.1 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.1 13.6 11.0 1.2 59.3 60.0 10.4 12.2 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 17.3 17.2 14.9 1.8 67.1 65.5 12.4 15.2 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 15.7 15.9 14.8 1.7 68.8 65.4 12.2 13.6 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 16.4 17.3 15.6 2.0 69.9 66.3 11.5 14.2 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 17.6 17.7 14.5 1.8 64.6 64.0 12.1 14.9 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 16.1 15.5 13.8 1.8 68.1 66.1 12.9 13.9 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 17.6 16.0 12.8 1.7 67.0 66.2 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 17.1 17.1 14.8 2.0 69.7 67.2 12.8 14.7 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 16.8 16.9 13.3 2.1 69.1 67.5 12.3 14.8 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 14.0 13.0 12.5 1.4 60.4 61.4 8.7 11.4 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 16.0 16.5 15.5 2.1 72.6 67.9 12.5 14.3 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------