***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2018.-28.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 17.4 17.6 17.2 1.6 67.1 62.4 14.0 15.2 17.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 17.3 17.2 16.9 1.3 64.2 60.0 14.0 15.3 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.0 17.6 17.3 1.3 63.0 59.6 14.8 16.3 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 11.1 10.4 14.7 1.9 67.3 64.3 7.0 8.9 10.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 16.7 17.0 15.5 1.2 60.5 58.9 13.7 16.1 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 16.0 17.5 14.5 1.5 63.0 59.7 13.5 15.3 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 17.1 17.3 16.9 1.4 65.5 60.8 13.4 15.0 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 5.4 7.5 13.7 0.5 50.8 52.8 5.8 7.4 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.9 16.1 1.1 60.3 57.9 14.0 16.6 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 16.9 16.5 14.7 0.7 53.4 54.5 13.3 16.3 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.4 15.7 1.1 59.0 57.5 13.5 17.0 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 13.6 17.1 14.7 0.9 57.3 56.1 13.1 16.2 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 13.9 17.9 15.3 1.1 58.0 57.1 13.9 16.0 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 13.9 16.6 15.6 0.4 50.8 52.2 14.6 16.6 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 16.2 16.5 16.5 2.4 74.0 69.8 13.3 14.4 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 17.9 18.7 15.5 1.4 62.3 59.5 14.5 17.2 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 15.6 16.6 16.3 1.1 63.3 59.0 13.3 14.8 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 12.9 15.2 14.0 0.3 48.1 51.7 13.0 15.4 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.3 17.0 17.0 1.2 62.0 59.0 13.9 15.5 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 10.9 11.8 11.7 -0.1 42.9 48.1 10.7 12.9 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 16.8 17.7 16.8 1.1 61.3 58.4 14.0 16.2 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 16.3 15.9 16.1 0.7 56.9 55.9 13.8 15.4 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.5 17.2 17.0 1.1 59.7 57.9 14.3 15.6 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 14.4 17.1 15.8 0.6 52.3 53.9 14.2 17.0 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.5 16.5 15.8 1.4 65.1 60.9 13.5 14.7 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 16.7 16.9 14.3 1.1 59.0 57.3 14.5 15.9 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 17.6 17.4 16.6 1.5 66.7 61.6 14.3 15.7 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 16.5 15.9 15.6 2.1 70.1 66.3 13.1 14.5 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 9.4 11.8 13.1 0.1 44.3 49.4 9.8 12.2 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 17.4 17.3 17.1 1.4 64.9 60.6 13.6 15.0 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------