***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 19.8 20.2 21.3 4.5 88.2 86.7 15.1 17.9 19.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 1 99 100 19.1 19.7 21.5 4.4 86.1 86.0 16.6 18.3 18.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 8 92 100 19.5 20.1 21.5 4.2 83.6 83.1 17.7 18.3 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 13.4 13.9 17.2 3.5 78.6 78.1 9.4 11.1 12.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 20.4 20.8 18.9 3.4 76.3 75.4 17.1 18.1 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 19.3 19.5 17.2 2.9 69.6 71.1 15.2 17.4 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 18.7 19.8 21.3 4.4 86.0 85.9 16.5 17.6 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 10.6 10.5 17.0 2.6 67.6 68.1 7.3 9.0 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 20.1 20.5 19.7 3.2 75.2 75.0 17.5 18.5 19.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 45 55 100 19.1 19.2 18.1 2.8 68.0 68.6 16.7 17.9 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 20.2 20.7 19.3 3.1 72.7 72.9 16.8 18.3 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 19.9 19.9 18.0 3.0 72.6 72.3 16.3 17.9 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 20.7 20.8 19.2 3.2 74.1 74.2 16.3 18.6 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 19.6 19.6 19.8 3.0 68.9 70.6 18.0 18.7 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 18.8 19.2 19.8 4.1 85.2 85.0 15.1 16.3 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 21.1 21.4 18.9 3.4 75.5 75.3 17.0 18.9 20.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 1 99 100 18.7 19.4 20.9 4.3 85.5 85.0 15.4 17.4 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 18.0 18.4 17.4 2.6 65.3 66.0 16.0 17.9 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 19.4 19.6 21.6 4.3 84.5 84.9 16.9 18.0 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 14.8 15.7 15.7 2.4 65.7 65.4 12.9 14.4 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 19.7 20.0 20.5 3.5 76.9 77.0 17.7 18.0 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 19.4 19.6 20.6 3.7 81.4 81.1 15.7 18.4 18.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 19.4 19.9 21.6 4.3 83.7 84.0 16.6 18.3 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 19.7 19.6 19.7 3.1 69.8 71.4 17.7 18.6 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 19.2 19.7 19.8 4.0 82.7 82.6 16.5 17.3 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 20.1 20.4 17.9 3.6 80.7 80.1 16.3 17.5 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 3 97 100 19.8 20.3 20.7 4.3 87.0 85.7 17.2 17.9 19.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 19.4 19.9 18.1 3.4 78.6 78.1 15.6 16.1 18.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 14.0 15.1 17.0 2.6 65.4 66.1 13.1 13.7 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 1 99 100 19.0 19.5 21.6 4.5 87.3 86.5 16.9 17.9 18.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------