***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-11.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 5.8 7.3 8.9 2.2 89.9 82.2 3.9 5.0 5.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 5.4 6.3 8.2 1.9 87.3 79.6 4.0 4.8 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 7.3 8.8 8.7 2.0 89.7 82.5 6.4 6.8 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 2.8 4.0 6.0 2.0 87.6 81.8 1.1 1.7 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 4.9 5.8 6.6 1.9 85.9 80.1 3.5 4.1 4.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 4.2 4.6 4.3 1.6 80.9 76.3 2.6 3.3 3.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 5.3 5.8 8.2 1.8 84.8 78.7 3.8 4.8 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 0.6 1.3 4.3 1.5 79.1 74.6 -1.1 -0.8 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 5.5 6.1 6.6 1.7 83.6 78.2 4.5 4.7 5.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 5.3 5.6 5.1 1.5 79.6 75.1 3.9 4.6 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 5.0 5.7 5.7 1.6 82.9 76.6 3.6 4.2 5.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 4.2 4.9 5.0 1.5 80.7 74.9 2.7 3.1 3.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 4.4 4.6 4.6 1.2 73.4 70.1 3.1 3.7 4.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 5.8 6.0 6.1 1.3 75.7 72.1 4.9 5.2 5.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 5.3 6.5 7.1 1.9 89.9 83.3 3.7 4.6 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 5.9 6.4 5.2 1.5 79.7 74.7 4.3 4.9 5.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 5.3 6.0 7.8 1.7 82.7 77.3 4.1 4.8 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 3.8 3.9 4.3 1.3 74.8 71.1 3.1 3.4 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 5.5 6.0 8.2 1.9 89.7 81.1 4.1 4.8 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 1.1 1.3 3.1 1.3 73.3 70.7 -0.3 0.4 0.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 5.3 5.9 7.9 1.8 85.7 79.1 4.1 4.8 5.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 4.8 5.2 7.8 1.6 83.7 77.7 3.5 4.1 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 5.3 5.9 8.1 1.9 90.0 81.7 4.0 4.8 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 4.8 5.2 6.0 1.4 79.8 74.2 4.0 4.3 4.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 5.8 7.3 8.0 2.3 90.1 82.8 4.3 4.8 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 4.7 5.2 4.4 1.3 77.1 70.7 3.5 3.7 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 6.0 7.0 8.4 2.1 87.1 79.8 4.0 4.8 5.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 4.1 4.8 6.0 1.8 85.7 79.8 2.1 3.1 3.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 3.7 3.9 3.8 1.3 74.5 71.4 1.9 2.7 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 5.7 6.5 8.6 2.0 89.2 81.6 4.1 5.0 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------