***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2018.-11.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 6.4 6.9 7.1 2.4 74.1 70.7 2.3 3.4 5.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 5.2 5.8 6.4 2.2 74.6 70.0 1.6 2.7 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 7.3 8.0 6.9 2.3 76.3 72.2 4.0 5.2 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 1.5 2.0 4.4 2.4 75.6 72.8 -1.2 -0.2 1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 5.1 5.5 4.7 2.4 74.9 72.3 0.6 2.5 4.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 4.0 4.3 3.0 2.2 75.3 72.8 0.5 2.3 3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 5.2 5.3 6.5 2.1 73.3 69.0 1.5 2.8 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 0.2 0.6 3.0 2.3 74.4 71.9 -3.3 -1.5 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 6.0 6.3 5.1 2.3 75.6 71.9 2.9 3.3 4.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 5.5 5.5 3.7 2.4 75.7 71.9 1.7 3.0 4.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 5.7 5.1 4.1 2.3 74.1 72.6 0.8 2.8 3.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 4.4 4.1 3.4 2.2 74.1 71.9 0.3 1.5 2.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 4.4 4.6 3.3 2.2 73.7 71.0 0.7 2.0 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 5.6 6.2 4.9 2.4 76.7 71.3 2.8 3.7 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 5.0 5.0 5.2 2.2 76.5 72.6 1.2 3.0 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 6.0 6.5 3.7 2.3 74.6 72.3 2.2 3.7 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 5.2 5.2 6.2 2.0 73.2 68.1 1.9 2.9 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 3.1 3.5 3.1 2.5 75.2 71.9 0.6 1.4 3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 5.1 5.8 6.5 2.2 76.1 71.3 1.8 3.0 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.4 73.3 70.4 -3.0 -1.2 0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 5.5 5.6 6.3 2.4 74.6 72.0 2.1 3.1 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 4.6 5.1 6.1 2.0 74.8 69.6 1.6 2.3 3.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 5.2 5.9 6.4 2.3 77.0 72.5 2.0 3.0 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 4.2 4.9 4.6 2.4 76.4 72.5 1.6 2.7 3.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 6.1 6.7 5.9 2.4 74.0 71.2 2.1 2.6 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 5.0 5.1 3.0 2.1 73.6 71.2 0.6 2.4 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 6.2 7.1 6.6 2.3 72.7 69.9 1.5 3.1 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 3.4 3.4 4.3 2.2 75.0 72.2 0.2 1.3 2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 3.4 3.7 2.8 2.4 75.0 71.2 -0.1 0.7 2.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 5.5 6.2 6.7 2.2 74.8 70.5 1.8 3.1 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------