***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 6.9 6.9 8.0 2.0 72.3 68.5 3.5 4.6 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 5.9 6.2 7.3 1.7 71.9 67.0 2.8 3.8 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 8.1 7.9 7.7 1.7 72.9 68.0 5.2 6.6 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 3.9 4.5 5.2 1.9 75.5 69.3 0.7 1.8 2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 5.2 5.5 5.3 1.5 70.9 66.4 1.6 3.3 4.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 4.2 4.4 3.5 1.6 71.4 66.8 0.5 1.9 4.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 5.7 5.6 7.5 1.8 71.7 67.5 2.9 4.1 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 0.6 0.7 3.4 1.2 62.6 62.7 -1.1 0.1 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 6.3 6.0 5.6 1.4 67.7 64.9 2.5 4.7 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 5.8 5.0 4.1 1.2 64.2 63.0 3.0 3.7 5.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 5.4 5.1 4.6 1.4 68.6 64.9 2.1 3.4 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 4.4 3.9 3.9 1.3 65.0 63.6 1.3 2.3 4.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 4.7 3.9 3.6 1.3 63.5 62.8 1.2 2.2 3.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 5.1 6.2 5.3 1.3 65.2 63.3 3.9 4.7 6.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 6.2 7.6 6.3 2.1 80.3 72.2 3.0 4.1 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 5.9 5.7 4.2 1.5 68.4 65.1 2.8 3.6 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 5.7 5.8 7.1 1.6 67.6 66.2 2.8 4.6 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 3.7 4.0 3.3 1.1 60.9 61.5 1.2 1.8 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 5.6 5.9 7.3 1.7 72.5 67.0 3.1 4.4 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 0.1 1.0 2.0 1.0 59.0 59.7 -1.5 -0.5 1.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 5.9 6.1 7.0 1.7 71.2 67.4 2.3 4.3 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 5.3 4.9 6.9 1.5 68.7 66.3 2.1 3.8 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 5.7 5.8 7.1 1.6 71.5 66.6 3.2 4.3 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 5.1 5.1 5.0 1.3 64.7 63.2 2.6 3.9 5.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 6.1 6.5 6.8 2.0 73.1 69.3 2.9 4.3 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 3.5 3.8 3.3 1.2 62.5 62.2 1.6 2.7 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 6.5 6.7 7.5 1.9 72.1 68.0 3.0 4.3 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 4.6 5.2 5.2 1.8 75.7 69.2 1.7 2.7 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.9 3.6 2.9 1.0 60.5 60.6 1.1 2.2 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 6.4 6.9 7.6 1.8 72.9 68.0 3.3 4.6 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------