***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 7.8 8.2 10.9 2.7 78.0 77.1 4.4 6.2 7.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 8.0 8.5 10.3 2.5 74.8 74.6 4.4 6.2 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 10.2 10.6 11.1 2.6 79.3 77.9 6.9 8.5 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 5.0 5.2 7.9 2.2 74.3 74.3 2.5 3.9 4.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 7.5 8.2 9.1 2.3 75.1 74.6 4.1 5.0 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 46 54 100 6.3 5.8 5.6 1.3 65.8 64.8 2.9 4.6 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 7.5 7.9 10.1 2.2 71.0 70.4 4.4 6.3 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 1.9 2.7 6.1 1.4 64.0 64.4 -0.6 1.7 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 45 55 100 7.8 8.3 8.5 1.7 70.3 70.0 5.3 6.7 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 6.5 7.4 6.7 1.4 64.4 64.4 4.8 6.3 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 6.2 6.9 7.7 1.3 66.3 65.3 4.4 6.0 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 4.9 6.2 6.8 1.4 65.6 64.8 3.4 4.5 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 5.2 4.8 5.9 0.4 49.8 51.7 3.4 4.9 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 95 5 100 6.7 7.0 7.5 0.9 57.5 57.9 4.9 6.6 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 7.4 7.5 8.6 1.4 69.6 69.1 4.0 6.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 6.8 7.5 6.7 1.0 62.5 60.9 5.2 6.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 7.4 8.0 9.7 2.2 70.3 70.8 4.5 6.3 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 94 6 100 5.6 5.8 5.7 0.8 55.0 55.4 3.3 5.5 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 8.2 8.6 10.5 2.6 77.4 76.8 4.4 6.8 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 94 6 100 1.7 2.5 4.9 1.2 58.8 58.3 -0.2 1.5 3.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 7.9 8.2 9.5 1.7 70.6 69.1 4.9 6.5 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 6.6 7.1 9.9 2.1 72.4 71.7 4.1 5.8 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 7.8 8.3 10.4 2.5 78.1 76.9 4.1 6.3 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 91 9 100 6.2 6.4 7.6 1.1 60.0 59.8 4.6 6.1 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 8.5 9.1 10.7 3.0 82.2 80.0 5.0 6.4 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 5.5 5.8 6.0 0.7 56.1 55.5 4.1 5.2 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 8.1 8.5 10.3 2.3 73.1 71.8 4.7 6.9 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 6.0 6.0 7.4 1.4 68.7 67.6 2.6 5.1 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 92 8 100 5.2 5.3 5.4 1.2 59.2 59.3 2.8 5.1 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 8.4 8.7 10.9 2.7 78.6 77.7 5.2 7.0 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------