***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 47.3 101.1 58.3 51.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 19.2 41.7 44.8 97.5 54.9 47.5 20.9 36.3 48.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 25.2 46.9 45.9 99.9 56.9 49.9 25.3 37.8 49.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 49.0 53.1 55.2 107.0 58.5 54.4 29.4 41.9 57.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 44.0 43.9 53.6 109.0 60.2 55.9 28.1 38.4 47.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 39.1 36.2 52.2 97.4 56.5 49.6 21.1 34.8 37.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 17.4 28.5 45.6 97.1 54.4 48.2 19.4 23.8 45.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 51.9 68.1 55.2 104.2 58.8 54.0 30.8 44.6 71.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 40.6 42.2 51.8 106.0 59.0 54.4 24.3 37.0 45.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 48.0 49.3 55.1 105.2 59.9 54.3 31.0 43.6 53.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 39.6 38.9 49.4 108.3 59.9 55.4 22.2 33.3 50.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 35.1 35.0 47.8 103.0 56.2 53.5 22.4 27.5 50.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 42.3 44.2 51.4 101.3 56.5 52.6 25.7 38.9 49.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 62.7 56.8 52.0 94.1 49.4 46.9 43.7 56.8 71.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 33.6 37.6 58.1 109.7 64.4 54.9 15.5 25.9 39.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 35.6 32.8 49.5 103.9 59.2 53.0 20.7 28.5 42.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 19.6 33.7 45.8 98.2 57.1 47.7 20.2 28.0 65.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 45.9 46.6 60.7 101.0 56.5 52.4 31.2 41.0 51.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 20.6 39.9 44.2 97.0 54.1 47.2 27.0 36.4 53.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 60.5 57.1 79.1 102.1 56.8 53.6 35.9 52.7 63.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 25.3 38.4 47.9 102.7 56.7 52.0 21.1 35.4 47.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 23.8 52.3 46.1 99.2 57.6 48.1 24.9 40.5 58.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 25.4 43.5 44.6 94.9 49.5 46.6 31.2 44.4 60.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 48.3 45.7 52.9 99.1 57.0 50.5 39.5 43.1 55.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 20.9 39.8 54.8 104.3 59.1 53.0 17.5 32.4 52.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 39.5 39.6 53.0 105.9 58.4 54.8 28.1 36.8 42.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 21.1 38.2 51.4 100.5 58.1 51.1 20.6 33.9 51.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 37.0 40.0 54.6 107.5 60.6 54.2 16.1 34.5 42.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 67.3 63.8 67.6 100.3 56.0 52.2 45.0 58.3 76.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 18.2 32.7 44.8 97.3 54.7 47.9 22.4 29.3 45.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------