***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 14.1 121.7 68.4 55.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 13.2 16.2 13.6 119.8 68.0 55.0 2.8 10.4 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.7 15.2 13.6 121.0 66.2 55.7 3.4 7.4 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 14.8 21.9 16.6 126.0 71.5 57.7 1.8 10.6 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.4 15.0 15.9 130.6 72.0 59.0 2.6 7.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 14.7 15.8 15.4 115.7 69.8 56.8 1.1 7.5 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.7 15.2 14.1 120.0 66.7 54.8 3.1 8.9 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 18.3 25.0 16.9 130.0 70.6 59.5 3.9 15.4 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.2 14.8 15.4 128.5 71.7 57.9 1.9 7.1 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.3 16.1 16.4 127.5 71.2 58.5 2.0 11.9 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.5 15.9 14.8 129.9 73.0 59.4 0.7 6.9 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.2 16.5 14.8 130.9 71.8 60.0 1.7 6.6 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 16.7 16.7 15.0 122.4 71.3 58.3 1.5 10.9 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.5 21.5 15.3 112.9 67.4 55.4 4.7 10.1 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.2 13.2 16.5 120.7 68.5 56.2 2.3 6.6 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.3 18.1 14.6 123.2 72.3 58.4 1.5 7.7 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.5 14.1 14.1 123.1 66.2 55.7 2.0 6.7 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.5 16.9 17.3 118.2 68.1 56.7 2.9 7.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.6 21.5 13.5 121.2 68.8 55.8 1.5 9.2 18.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 11.1 16.4 22.4 120.1 66.6 56.7 5.9 8.6 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.9 15.1 14.6 124.0 72.4 56.7 3.0 7.0 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 12.6 17.2 14.4 126.2 68.3 56.3 1.8 10.0 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 13.5 25.2 13.7 120.4 71.9 56.5 2.1 9.6 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.7 14.2 15.2 116.7 67.5 56.3 2.0 8.9 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.3 12.7 16.0 118.2 69.4 54.8 1.2 4.2 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.1 12.7 14.7 121.5 70.2 56.7 1.7 8.6 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.1 12.2 15.4 119.9 67.5 54.5 2.2 5.7 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.8 13.4 16.0 122.7 70.2 57.3 0.9 4.5 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 14.3 24.8 19.1 116.5 66.9 56.6 5.4 9.9 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.2 13.3 13.5 119.3 66.9 54.7 2.3 8.7 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------