***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 11.9 98.2 58.9 49.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.5 8.0 12.1 104.9 60.8 50.3 1.0 3.3 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.5 11.9 12.4 105.1 61.5 51.0 0.8 5.3 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 2.3 8.8 13.2 105.1 62.1 50.3 2.3 4.8 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.0 10.3 12.9 109.6 64.8 51.6 0.5 4.5 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 1.2 3.5 13.8 105.4 61.6 52.7 0.5 2.7 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.6 6.4 11.9 100.0 57.8 49.1 0.5 3.8 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 3.3 8.8 14.3 109.6 62.4 53.6 1.4 6.7 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.4 11.1 13.3 111.3 65.2 52.5 0.7 5.3 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 2.9 11.7 14.5 112.7 64.3 53.9 0.6 6.1 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.5 8.8 12.4 115.6 65.4 53.7 0.3 5.5 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.3 7.4 11.8 105.3 61.0 52.5 0.7 5.0 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.3 5.7 12.5 99.7 59.7 51.6 0.2 4.7 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.7 16.3 14.8 102.9 65.3 52.3 3.0 10.5 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 0.9 5.9 14.3 110.1 67.8 51.7 0.5 2.0 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 1.0 5.8 12.1 106.5 61.4 51.4 0.1 2.2 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.7 6.5 11.6 99.8 58.4 49.6 0.9 3.8 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.6 11.6 16.3 106.5 63.0 52.2 2.5 7.5 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.1 6.7 12.1 105.4 62.1 50.9 1.1 4.4 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 2.2 7.7 20.2 100.4 60.1 50.5 1.0 5.1 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.5 9.4 12.1 104.2 62.5 50.2 0.8 7.2 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 1.5 12.0 11.6 99.0 60.8 50.9 0.7 3.5 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.1 7.4 12.3 103.5 60.3 51.4 1.9 4.2 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.4 14.3 14.6 106.0 64.5 52.1 1.7 9.2 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.2 5.9 12.9 96.8 56.6 49.0 2.2 4.8 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 1.4 4.5 13.3 109.7 62.8 53.6 0.4 2.9 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.7 8.8 12.5 94.4 56.7 48.6 0.6 5.8 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.2 6.1 13.3 108.7 64.8 51.2 0.4 2.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 5.8 18.0 18.2 102.9 62.5 51.5 3.3 12.5 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.8 5.0 12.1 104.3 59.0 50.1 1.0 3.9 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------