***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.7 67.5 47.5 39.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 1.4 3.0 9.0 65.2 47.9 37.0 1.0 3.3 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 2.1 5.6 9.6 72.3 54.3 40.8 1.9 4.9 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 2.0 6.8 10.9 77.6 54.3 44.0 1.4 4.5 13.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.4 7.5 11.4 85.8 56.0 46.8 2.5 5.7 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 1.4 4.4 13.1 91.3 55.3 46.0 0.5 3.2 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.7 3.3 8.8 63.6 47.6 36.8 1.7 4.1 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 4.1 11.1 12.8 89.7 60.9 46.5 2.8 9.0 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.9 7.2 11.4 85.2 55.4 45.9 2.1 6.0 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.0 9.3 12.6 87.7 59.2 46.0 2.7 6.4 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.1 7.5 11.2 91.5 60.9 47.3 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 1.7 6.2 11.4 93.9 62.0 47.7 1.1 4.1 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.0 6.7 12.8 95.5 60.5 49.0 1.9 4.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 3.7 9.3 12.8 76.8 52.9 42.0 2.8 8.1 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 1.8 5.5 11.4 78.9 57.9 44.2 1.5 4.0 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 1.4 5.0 11.8 93.7 61.4 47.5 2.1 3.2 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 0.9 2.1 9.0 64.9 44.0 36.6 1.1 2.3 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 2.9 7.9 14.7 86.6 57.6 45.2 1.4 7.3 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 1.9 4.1 9.3 66.4 48.8 37.4 1.1 4.2 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 2.2 8.2 18.1 81.7 56.6 44.4 2.0 5.3 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 2.5 5.8 9.9 79.2 52.6 44.3 1.8 5.5 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 2.1 3.7 9.3 66.6 43.3 36.8 2.6 5.6 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.7 6.6 10.1 68.9 50.3 38.5 1.6 6.4 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 2.6 6.5 12.7 81.9 55.8 44.0 2.4 6.2 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 1.0 3.4 10.5 74.7 54.3 43.7 0.5 2.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 1.6 8.5 12.9 98.2 56.5 48.5 1.2 4.2 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 0.8 2.2 9.8 69.7 49.5 40.4 1.0 2.3 4.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 1.7 5.7 11.6 83.7 58.6 45.2 2.0 4.3 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 4.0 10.7 16.7 86.2 56.9 45.6 2.3 8.3 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 1.8 4.2 9.0 65.5 49.7 37.8 0.5 4.3 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------