***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 12.6 124.0 66.7 58.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 5.7 8.0 10.1 109.2 65.7 55.9 0.5 4.4 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 10.8 13.4 10.4 106.9 62.8 53.4 1.3 8.4 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.1 17.9 14.5 123.0 68.2 58.0 3.2 6.7 15.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.5 14.4 13.3 112.3 64.9 55.3 1.7 8.2 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 1.6 6.3 9.8 77.1 55.7 45.7 1.0 3.4 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 5.0 8.0 10.9 113.8 65.6 56.2 0.9 3.8 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 5.2 13.9 11.2 88.7 57.8 47.8 5.3 10.2 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.7 10.7 11.7 101.2 60.1 51.6 4.5 7.8 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.8 14.2 11.7 94.5 58.9 49.2 2.8 10.9 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.4 13.4 11.1 97.9 64.0 50.6 2.0 10.0 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.0 9.7 83.7 56.7 48.3 1.6 7.6 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 9.6 10.9 11.1 88.4 60.6 52.1 1.1 8.0 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 17.9 20.9 9.0 85.3 57.0 50.0 7.8 14.7 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 5.5 13.2 15.9 134.4 72.2 61.4 1.0 3.1 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 9.0 12.0 11.0 93.1 61.8 51.1 1.3 6.6 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 4.1 9.5 11.1 114.7 69.1 58.7 0.6 1.8 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.6 12.3 94.2 57.7 50.1 3.8 7.9 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 11.5 12.5 9.3 103.6 63.2 54.6 3.3 9.3 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.4 17.4 18.4 112.2 65.7 56.6 2.9 9.0 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.2 11.2 11.2 104.8 62.8 52.5 2.0 6.0 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 7.3 13.4 10.8 114.9 67.4 59.5 0.6 5.6 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 9.9 13.4 8.6 93.2 58.7 51.8 2.4 8.2 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 15.9 15.1 10.4 93.8 58.4 51.0 3.4 13.8 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.2 14.8 15.4 132.7 66.8 59.9 1.4 4.0 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.1 10.3 12.0 95.2 64.0 55.4 0.5 6.1 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.7 15.3 13.8 124.2 66.5 58.3 2.4 5.2 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.0 11.8 13.8 118.0 69.0 57.4 3.0 5.3 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 16.6 20.0 13.6 98.1 59.8 52.5 6.1 13.4 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 8.8 12.0 10.2 108.9 64.7 54.2 1.2 6.8 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------