***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 12.3 0.3 55.8 54.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 12.2 11.8 12.1 0.4 55.7 54.7 10.6 11.5 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 10.4 12.8 12.4 0.3 55.8 54.3 11.1 12.6 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 7.5 6.5 10.6 0.3 52.8 54.0 4.7 6.5 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 10.2 12.6 11.1 0.3 53.2 53.8 11.1 12.5 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 9.6 11.8 10.4 0.6 49.7 55.1 9.7 11.8 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 9.7 11.8 11.9 0.4 55.2 54.6 10.2 11.7 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 2.5 5.9 10.4 0.5 53.2 54.4 3.3 5.6 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 10.6 13.5 11.6 0.3 53.4 53.6 11.3 13.2 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 10.6 12.8 10.9 0.3 52.6 53.6 10.7 12.5 13.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 10.6 12.8 11.1 0.4 53.6 54.8 11.0 12.6 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 13.3 12.9 11.1 0.6 54.0 55.4 10.4 12.6 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.5 10.8 0.6 52.5 56.1 10.6 12.2 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.6 12.7 11.7 0.2 51.9 53.2 11.3 12.6 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 12.2 11.6 10.9 0.5 50.8 55.7 10.5 11.5 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 11.2 13.4 11.0 0.5 52.4 55.2 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.2 11.6 0.3 54.4 53.9 10.2 10.9 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.2 10.5 0.3 51.2 53.3 9.5 11.2 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.6 11.9 12.3 0.4 56.0 54.7 11.0 11.8 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.4 9.6 8.8 0.4 51.3 54.2 7.9 9.6 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 10.1 13.1 12.0 0.3 53.4 53.5 11.0 12.8 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.6 11.8 0.2 54.3 53.1 10.6 11.4 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 12.7 12.2 12.4 0.4 55.7 54.6 10.9 11.7 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.0 11.7 0.3 51.9 53.5 12.0 13.0 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 9.7 12.1 11.0 0.3 57.5 53.8 10.2 11.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.6 10.7 0.7 50.9 56.4 10.9 12.2 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 10.0 13.0 11.6 0.3 57.2 54.1 10.6 12.5 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 9.9 11.8 10.9 0.4 51.1 54.6 10.3 11.8 12.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.5 8.6 9.8 0.3 50.6 53.6 6.6 8.6 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 9.8 12.4 12.2 0.4 55.6 54.8 10.1 11.9 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------