***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 14.1 0.4 50.4 53.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 14.5 13.9 13.9 0.4 51.7 53.9 12.7 13.7 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.0 14.3 0.4 52.4 53.4 12.2 14.9 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.4 9.1 12.3 0.0 47.0 50.8 6.7 9.4 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 15.7 14.9 12.8 0.2 48.7 51.5 12.8 14.9 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 11.7 14.6 12.0 0.2 48.7 52.4 13.3 14.7 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 14.2 13.5 13.8 0.4 49.0 53.6 12.5 13.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 8.4 7.6 12.2 0.4 52.7 53.8 6.2 7.5 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 16.1 15.1 13.5 0.3 49.6 51.5 12.4 15.1 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 12.2 14.6 12.8 0.3 50.3 52.4 12.1 14.5 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.5 12.9 0.3 52.5 53.7 12.6 15.2 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.9 12.9 0.5 56.5 55.3 12.7 14.7 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 12.6 15.6 12.7 0.5 55.8 55.1 13.2 15.0 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 12.4 15.8 13.5 0.3 51.9 51.8 10.9 15.4 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 12.2 13.9 12.5 0.1 46.4 52.2 12.9 14.4 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 13.2 15.9 12.7 0.3 52.5 53.6 13.8 15.6 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 13.6 12.6 13.4 0.3 47.0 52.4 12.1 13.0 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 11.3 13.9 12.5 0.4 51.2 52.1 11.3 13.8 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 14.9 15.0 14.2 0.5 53.8 54.2 12.3 14.1 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 9.3 12.2 10.7 0.4 50.8 53.2 10.4 12.2 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.1 13.9 0.3 49.3 51.5 12.4 15.2 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 11.5 13.6 13.6 0.3 49.0 52.4 12.2 13.6 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 11.8 15.0 14.3 0.5 54.9 54.1 11.5 14.2 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 12.2 15.1 13.6 0.4 51.9 52.3 12.1 14.9 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 14.7 13.8 12.7 0.2 47.5 51.7 12.9 13.9 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 12.5 15.1 12.5 0.5 54.9 54.4 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.4 14.5 13.5 0.3 49.0 52.8 12.8 14.7 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 12.4 13.9 12.5 0.0 46.1 51.4 12.3 14.8 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.4 11.5 11.8 0.4 51.1 52.8 8.7 11.4 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.4 14.1 0.5 51.6 54.2 12.5 14.3 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------