***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 0.0 21.8 6.3 98.9 97.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 19.1 21.2 21.8 6.3 99.2 97.3 16.6 18.3 18.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 19.6 22.8 22.2 6.5 99.9 97.5 17.7 18.3 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 13.6 15.7 19.5 6.2 98.2 96.7 9.4 11.1 12.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 20.8 22.3 20.9 6.6 99.1 97.1 17.1 18.1 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 20.2 23.8 19.4 6.7 98.4 96.3 15.2 17.4 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 18.7 21.2 21.5 6.2 98.9 97.2 16.5 17.6 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 11.7 14.5 19.2 6.3 97.0 94.9 7.3 9.0 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 20.5 22.5 21.9 6.8 100.0 97.4 17.5 18.5 19.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 20.1 22.5 20.4 6.6 98.4 95.9 16.7 17.9 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 20.9 22.8 20.9 6.7 99.1 97.0 16.8 18.3 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 20.7 22.9 20.1 6.5 98.6 96.4 16.3 17.9 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 21.2 24.0 20.6 6.9 99.6 97.3 16.3 18.6 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 20.4 22.3 21.3 6.2 95.5 94.1 18.0 18.7 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 18.8 21.8 20.9 6.2 99.9 97.6 15.1 16.3 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 21.5 23.8 20.8 6.9 99.4 97.6 17.0 18.9 20.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 18.7 20.7 20.9 5.9 98.6 96.4 15.4 17.4 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 19.2 20.9 19.6 6.2 95.8 93.2 16.0 17.9 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 19.5 21.4 22.0 6.4 99.7 97.5 16.9 18.0 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 17.5 18.7 17.0 5.4 90.3 89.3 12.9 14.4 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 20.0 22.4 22.0 6.5 99.7 97.1 17.7 18.0 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 19.5 21.1 20.9 5.7 98.5 95.8 15.7 18.4 18.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 19.5 22.6 22.2 6.6 99.8 97.4 16.6 18.3 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 20.3 22.8 21.3 6.5 98.2 95.3 17.7 18.6 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 19.3 21.1 20.5 6.2 98.9 96.9 16.5 17.3 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 20.2 23.6 19.3 6.3 98.5 96.2 16.3 17.5 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 19.8 22.0 21.2 6.2 98.7 97.0 17.2 17.9 19.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 19.8 22.7 20.4 6.4 98.8 96.9 15.6 16.1 18.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 16.0 18.2 18.6 5.8 91.7 90.8 13.1 13.7 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 19.0 21.3 22.0 6.4 99.3 97.6 16.9 17.9 18.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------