***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 5.9 0.6 58.8 54.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 3.5 3.1 5.4 0.6 53.3 54.0 1.6 2.7 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.5 5.6 0.6 55.1 55.1 4.0 5.2 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 0.3 0.1 3.5 0.7 54.1 55.2 -1.2 -0.2 1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 3.2 2.7 3.8 0.7 53.0 55.6 0.6 2.5 4.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 2.7 2.6 2.5 1.2 56.2 59.6 0.5 2.3 3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.6 2.9 5.5 0.6 53.8 54.2 1.5 2.8 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -1.0 -1.3 2.8 0.9 52.6 57.2 -3.3 -1.5 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 4.2 3.3 4.4 0.6 51.5 55.2 2.9 3.3 4.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 3.8 3.1 3.3 0.7 51.7 55.6 1.7 3.0 4.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 3.6 2.9 3.6 0.9 54.1 57.0 0.8 2.8 3.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 2.2 1.7 3.5 1.0 53.4 58.4 0.3 1.5 2.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 2.6 2.1 3.1 1.1 53.4 58.3 0.7 2.0 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 4.3 3.8 4.2 0.5 53.7 54.7 2.8 3.7 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 3.6 3.1 4.1 0.9 56.0 56.2 1.2 3.0 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 4.3 3.9 3.3 1.0 54.3 57.8 2.2 3.7 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.4 3.0 5.1 0.4 50.9 52.5 1.9 2.9 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 1.9 1.6 2.8 0.6 51.9 54.9 0.6 1.4 3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 3.7 3.5 5.4 0.6 53.8 54.2 1.8 3.0 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -0.3 -1.0 1.7 0.7 51.8 55.4 -3.0 -1.2 0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 3.9 3.1 5.2 0.6 54.6 54.8 2.1 3.1 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 3.1 2.3 5.1 0.3 50.3 52.2 1.6 2.3 3.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.3 5.3 0.6 53.5 54.9 2.0 3.0 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 3.2 2.8 4.1 0.5 52.7 55.1 1.6 2.7 3.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.4 4.4 0.6 55.7 55.0 2.1 2.6 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 3.2 2.8 3.3 1.1 56.0 58.7 0.6 2.4 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 4.1 3.4 5.2 0.6 57.7 54.7 1.5 3.1 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 1.8 1.6 3.8 0.9 55.0 56.2 0.2 1.3 2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 1.5 0.8 2.4 0.6 52.2 55.1 -0.1 0.7 2.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 3.9 3.6 5.6 0.6 55.2 54.6 1.8 3.1 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------