***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 0.0 9.7 1.8 69.4 65.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 6.8 7.2 9.3 1.8 68.1 67.0 3.2 5.6 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 9.0 9.6 9.5 1.9 71.9 67.6 5.4 6.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 4.1 4.0 7.3 1.8 74.9 69.1 0.4 1.9 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 6.0 6.7 7.5 1.7 72.3 67.2 2.9 4.2 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 5.4 6.1 6.0 2.0 77.8 70.9 2.7 3.6 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 7.0 6.9 9.2 1.7 69.9 66.1 2.8 5.3 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 2.2 2.2 6.4 1.7 71.3 66.8 -1.7 0.1 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 7.6 7.5 8.1 1.7 69.5 65.8 3.1 5.7 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 6.5 7.1 6.9 1.6 68.2 65.1 3.3 4.4 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 6.5 6.8 7.3 1.8 75.1 68.8 3.4 5.1 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 5.8 5.9 7.0 1.8 72.9 68.4 2.2 4.1 5.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 6.1 6.2 6.5 1.8 71.0 67.8 3.1 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 7.7 8.1 8.2 1.8 72.5 67.7 4.0 5.6 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 6.3 7.3 7.8 2.0 81.0 71.8 4.1 4.8 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 7.4 8.1 6.8 1.9 74.6 69.4 4.4 5.6 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 44 56 100 6.9 7.2 8.9 1.6 68.8 65.5 3.1 5.3 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 5.7 5.1 6.4 1.5 66.0 64.0 2.5 3.7 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 7.1 7.4 9.4 1.9 69.9 68.3 2.8 5.1 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 2.4 2.6 5.2 1.5 64.7 63.8 -1.0 1.1 2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 7.1 7.1 9.0 1.7 69.8 65.9 2.5 5.6 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 6.6 6.5 8.9 1.7 71.4 66.5 2.1 4.9 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 6.9 7.5 9.3 2.0 72.5 69.8 2.8 5.0 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 6.5 6.7 8.0 1.8 70.1 66.9 3.0 4.3 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 7.1 7.8 8.2 1.8 69.7 67.1 3.6 5.7 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 6.6 6.9 6.7 1.8 75.0 68.1 3.3 4.9 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 7.7 7.6 9.0 1.8 68.5 66.0 3.3 5.7 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 5.2 6.0 7.5 2.0 78.1 70.9 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 4.9 5.5 6.0 1.5 67.4 64.4 1.0 2.1 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 7.2 7.8 9.5 1.8 69.5 67.1 3.1 5.4 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------