***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 0.0 13.7 6.3 100.0 98.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 8.7 10.4 12.8 5.7 99.0 96.3 4.4 6.2 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 10.6 12.3 13.2 6.0 99.4 97.7 6.9 8.5 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 5.2 7.9 10.6 5.5 99.9 98.5 2.5 3.9 4.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 8.3 9.9 11.4 5.8 99.1 98.5 4.1 5.0 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 7.7 10.6 9.0 5.4 100.0 99.2 2.9 4.6 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 8.5 9.9 13.0 5.8 99.9 96.6 4.4 6.3 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 3.2 7.8 9.3 5.3 98.7 97.8 -0.6 1.7 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 8.8 11.2 11.8 5.7 98.8 98.3 5.3 6.7 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 8.5 10.2 10.3 5.5 98.3 97.8 4.8 6.3 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 8.0 10.2 10.7 5.5 99.2 98.3 4.4 6.0 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 7.2 9.6 10.1 5.5 99.4 98.3 3.4 4.5 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 7.9 10.0 10.0 5.5 99.6 98.9 3.4 4.9 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 8.9 10.3 11.3 5.3 98.1 96.4 4.9 6.6 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 8.1 10.1 11.7 5.4 100.0 98.8 4.0 6.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 8.9 10.8 10.3 5.5 99.8 98.8 5.2 6.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 1 99 100 8.2 9.7 12.2 5.4 98.7 95.4 4.5 6.3 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 7.7 8.7 9.3 5.3 97.6 96.8 3.3 5.5 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 8.6 10.0 12.8 5.7 98.4 96.3 4.4 6.8 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 4.3 6.6 7.4 5.1 97.3 96.6 -0.2 1.5 3.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 8.8 10.9 12.9 5.9 99.6 98.4 4.9 6.5 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 7.1 9.7 12.1 5.1 97.4 94.8 4.1 5.8 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 1 99 100 8.3 9.9 12.5 5.5 98.0 96.2 4.1 6.3 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 7.6 9.9 11.1 5.3 98.2 96.9 4.6 6.1 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 8.9 11.0 12.6 6.2 99.9 98.4 5.0 6.4 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 7.6 10.2 9.8 5.5 99.8 98.7 4.1 5.2 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 8.8 13.0 13.1 6.3 99.9 98.0 4.7 6.9 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 6.6 9.6 10.9 5.4 100.0 98.7 2.6 5.1 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 6.5 8.3 8.5 5.1 97.5 96.5 2.8 5.1 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 8.7 10.6 13.2 5.9 99.6 96.9 5.2 7.0 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------