***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 25.7 24.1 35.5 73.4 37.4 37.0 23.3 35.5 52.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 22.4 30.5 35.0 78.3 41.4 39.9 23.6 34.7 45.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 27.0 31.6 37.0 76.5 39.3 38.8 27.4 37.8 55.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 23.7 32.4 39.4 69.1 35.1 35.1 30.4 39.7 57.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 26.1 29.6 37.6 72.5 36.1 36.4 28.1 39.4 47.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 35.0 22.9 40.5 78.3 40.1 38.7 19.5 30.6 37.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 18.5 22.3 34.0 77.3 42.4 39.0 19.8 24.1 41.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 32.6 33.8 43.7 76.9 38.3 38.3 30.8 46.4 71.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 28.3 27.3 38.9 74.3 37.9 37.7 24.6 39.6 44.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 27.9 33.0 42.9 76.3 38.6 38.2 31.0 41.0 58.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 23.8 23.1 37.5 72.2 36.1 35.9 21.9 34.3 50.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 19.1 25.2 38.8 75.8 39.2 37.7 22.1 29.0 49.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 27.3 32.9 41.2 78.6 42.4 38.0 25.4 38.8 48.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 39.1 54.6 46.6 78.9 40.9 39.7 46.9 61.0 71.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 13.3 17.3 40.5 70.1 36.6 36.7 15.5 24.5 37.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 18.3 22.4 38.1 75.1 38.7 36.8 19.5 26.8 47.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 19.0 23.5 34.9 79.7 43.5 40.2 20.3 29.6 63.3 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 34.2 37.3 46.1 80.0 39.5 40.2 32.6 44.8 54.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 22.8 34.3 35.9 78.0 41.4 39.9 28.3 36.4 50.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 61.5 41.7 55.4 80.8 41.1 40.4 35.0 54.0 67.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 23.9 29.6 36.5 72.8 37.5 36.7 23.6 35.5 47.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 24.2 32.8 37.0 79.1 43.9 40.4 26.3 44.0 53.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 26.6 39.5 37.9 77.7 41.9 39.6 34.5 43.8 54.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 33.6 42.8 43.6 79.8 41.2 40.5 39.9 50.0 54.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 18.2 21.4 37.4 69.9 35.0 35.2 19.3 32.4 52.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 23.6 33.5 43.4 81.2 40.4 39.9 27.6 37.9 42.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 22.1 24.5 36.5 72.8 37.1 36.6 21.7 33.4 51.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 18.4 19.7 38.7 71.2 36.2 36.2 13.6 33.2 40.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 47.7 48.5 48.4 80.6 41.1 40.3 45.0 60.0 77.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 20.0 26.6 35.9 78.2 41.5 39.8 25.4 32.3 43.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------