***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 11.8 13.0 16.0 119.2 66.9 55.4 5.3 9.9 12.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.3 15.2 15.0 118.2 65.8 54.2 3.5 6.9 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 12.2 15.2 16.4 124.8 68.5 55.4 3.8 9.9 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.6 22.6 17.5 117.5 68.4 54.2 1.6 5.8 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.4 12.5 16.3 117.0 68.9 53.7 2.2 8.1 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.3 13.6 15.0 112.9 66.2 53.1 1.3 6.9 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.8 15.2 14.4 115.3 65.9 53.6 2.3 8.6 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 15.6 29.4 17.6 118.3 68.7 54.0 5.8 10.2 25.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.4 16.1 16.9 117.5 68.0 53.7 1.3 6.9 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.5 18.2 17.6 116.9 68.9 53.4 2.0 11.0 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.3 15.1 15.6 115.1 68.1 53.0 1.4 8.9 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.0 16.5 16.1 121.1 68.2 53.9 3.4 8.3 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.0 17.0 16.6 122.4 65.6 53.8 3.0 10.9 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.8 21.6 19.2 122.6 69.7 53.1 4.9 12.4 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.4 13.0 18.5 119.6 69.4 55.2 1.0 4.1 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.8 14.6 15.6 119.3 66.8 53.2 2.1 8.0 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.7 15.4 14.5 115.5 65.1 53.3 2.7 7.7 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.4 20.1 18.4 121.5 68.4 54.2 4.0 11.3 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.0 17.0 15.6 121.9 67.2 54.6 2.5 8.5 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.0 17.0 22.1 120.8 66.1 55.4 6.5 9.3 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.9 13.8 16.1 120.4 68.4 54.1 2.1 7.8 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.8 17.0 15.0 114.5 63.9 53.8 2.5 8.5 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.1 17.7 16.5 125.3 69.7 54.3 2.2 8.9 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.6 18.0 18.1 124.9 70.6 54.4 4.1 9.6 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 8.2 11.6 16.6 113.5 67.1 54.3 1.5 5.8 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.6 11.5 17.4 125.0 67.4 55.6 2.2 5.5 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.0 13.6 16.0 114.3 65.8 54.4 4.6 8.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.8 11.4 16.6 118.1 69.1 53.8 0.9 3.0 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.6 25.9 18.9 121.3 66.9 54.4 6.9 19.3 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.3 15.7 15.7 121.2 66.5 55.1 1.9 7.9 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------