***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-03.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.9 5.9 7.8 62.5 49.4 40.2 0.3 6.2 11.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 1.1 3.1 8.0 68.0 51.0 42.0 0.8 2.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 1.4 3.0 8.1 63.9 49.7 41.0 0.3 3.2 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 6.7 3.9 8.8 58.1 48.6 40.7 1.9 4.3 9.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.2 4.2 8.8 61.8 50.6 41.5 0.4 4.0 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 3.5 2.7 11.7 81.4 54.9 47.6 0.3 2.6 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 1.5 4.0 8.3 71.7 51.2 43.1 0.6 3.9 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 7.0 5.5 10.7 71.4 51.1 43.0 1.0 5.3 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 4.7 2.1 9.1 63.1 49.5 40.8 0.1 2.2 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 6.7 5.3 10.3 68.1 51.2 42.0 0.7 5.1 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 4.1 2.9 9.0 65.4 50.7 42.5 0.3 2.7 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.4 3.3 9.5 69.4 50.0 42.8 0.5 3.3 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 4.9 4.4 10.8 74.6 53.1 44.8 0.4 3.3 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.2 11.1 11.1 71.4 55.0 42.8 1.1 8.9 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 3.1 1.6 9.3 60.0 52.2 42.8 0.2 1.5 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 2.9 2.6 9.8 70.9 51.1 44.3 0.3 1.9 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.2 3.2 8.8 77.3 54.1 43.7 0.5 2.8 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 6.0 6.4 11.3 73.6 53.6 43.4 1.7 4.2 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 1.6 3.9 7.8 64.8 50.3 41.0 0.7 3.9 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.2 3.9 14.8 79.6 52.4 45.0 0.9 3.6 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.0 3.8 7.9 58.7 46.9 39.6 0.4 4.2 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 1.2 3.8 9.3 76.5 53.9 43.0 0.7 3.2 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.5 3.9 8.3 64.5 52.4 40.7 1.2 3.3 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.9 7.2 10.2 70.0 54.0 42.8 1.1 6.3 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 1.8 2.5 8.1 57.8 46.5 39.9 1.1 3.7 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 3.8 2.6 11.3 76.7 51.4 45.4 0.4 2.5 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.1 3.4 8.1 62.8 48.6 40.5 0.2 4.4 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.1 2.9 9.5 64.7 51.9 43.1 0.2 2.9 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.9 12.4 12.2 76.0 52.8 44.2 2.5 8.4 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.3 3.1 8.1 66.9 50.5 41.7 1.0 2.9 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------