***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.3 5.6 10.3 79.5 54.9 41.0 2.5 4.9 12.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.3 6.6 9.9 85.4 58.5 47.3 0.5 4.9 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.0 8.6 10.7 81.8 57.9 42.8 2.8 6.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.5 12.5 11.7 82.6 57.6 43.6 2.1 8.0 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.8 8.5 11.2 84.7 56.0 44.4 3.2 7.6 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.8 8.9 12.2 96.2 62.4 46.6 1.2 4.3 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.0 5.9 9.4 81.9 58.6 46.4 1.8 4.1 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 5.4 13.2 12.9 90.1 57.9 47.5 4.4 9.9 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.4 11.6 88.7 58.9 46.2 3.4 7.3 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.3 13.0 92.3 58.7 47.3 3.6 8.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.2 8.3 11.3 84.4 57.5 44.1 2.3 5.9 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.0 11.2 87.2 57.6 46.1 2.1 6.1 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.8 12.1 94.3 61.0 46.4 2.7 6.4 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.0 12.2 13.4 84.2 56.0 44.8 5.7 10.9 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.4 9.0 11.5 81.0 60.5 44.5 1.5 4.7 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.0 6.5 11.2 87.9 58.6 44.9 3.0 4.3 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.1 3.5 9.4 84.3 58.4 46.7 1.1 2.3 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.6 10.4 14.1 95.2 60.5 48.9 3.3 6.8 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.4 10.8 10.2 83.7 58.6 45.7 2.0 5.8 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.4 15.6 87.1 57.5 47.3 4.1 7.9 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.1 8.6 11.3 85.8 57.1 43.9 2.7 5.9 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.4 11.0 9.9 81.4 56.1 46.0 0.8 5.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.8 10.4 10.7 80.7 56.2 42.1 3.5 9.1 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.0 12.1 13.2 91.0 58.8 46.4 5.0 8.0 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 1.7 3.6 11.6 79.4 51.9 41.2 1.4 3.5 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 11.9 9.9 12.3 88.8 57.4 46.1 2.7 8.6 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 1.3 3.7 11.2 82.4 55.2 41.9 1.0 2.9 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.5 9.3 11.2 84.8 60.4 44.7 1.7 7.3 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 4.9 16.6 14.7 93.4 60.6 49.1 5.8 8.6 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.5 7.8 10.0 82.3 57.3 45.4 1.2 5.3 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------