***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 0.9 1.1 1.4 14.6 29.3 18.7 2.6 4.8 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 2.0 1.1 2.1 24.4 37.0 23.3 0.5 7.2 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 0.7 0.8 1.8 19.1 32.5 20.2 1.0 3.7 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 86 14 0 100 1.0 1.3 1.4 11.1 28.2 17.3 2.5 5.1 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 86 14 0 100 0.9 0.2 1.3 12.3 29.2 17.8 1.1 6.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 85 15 0 100 0.6 0.9 1.7 14.8 29.7 19.1 1.1 4.2 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 1.3 1.2 2.0 23.5 35.5 23.2 0.8 5.7 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 2.3 2.2 2.4 19.3 31.9 22.3 2.7 10.2 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 1.2 0.9 1.2 12.0 28.6 18.2 1.6 7.4 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 83 17 0 100 2.4 1.3 2.0 16.5 29.7 20.5 2.3 12.3 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 86 14 0 100 1.2 2.5 1.6 14.5 30.2 18.6 3.3 8.6 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 1.5 0.6 1.9 17.1 32.7 21.4 0.6 8.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 1.4 0.6 1.8 15.7 30.6 20.2 0.7 7.2 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 80 20 0 100 2.0 5.7 2.9 24.2 33.7 22.7 5.6 9.0 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 0.4 0.7 1.3 10.3 32.7 19.4 0.7 2.0 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 83 17 0 100 1.0 0.7 1.5 13.6 30.6 18.7 0.9 6.0 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 0.8 0.6 2.2 25.2 36.3 24.4 0.5 3.4 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 84 16 0 100 1.3 2.1 2.2 18.1 32.1 19.9 2.4 4.0 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 2.4 5.1 2.3 25.5 37.4 23.7 0.7 8.9 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 1.8 1.0 2.9 21.8 33.5 22.2 1.0 8.4 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 0.4 0.4 1.1 10.9 27.6 17.7 1.3 2.5 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 1.7 2.1 2.7 29.5 37.1 26.3 0.3 5.9 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 78 22 0 100 2.2 2.5 2.4 25.2 36.8 23.8 1.3 9.7 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 82 18 0 100 1.3 2.2 2.2 19.3 32.8 20.1 2.2 6.9 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 86 14 0 100 0.4 0.1 1.1 10.7 26.4 16.4 0.8 2.7 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 1.1 3.3 2.3 21.5 36.0 24.4 1.8 4.9 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 84 16 0 100 0.9 1.4 1.2 12.7 28.1 17.9 2.9 5.2 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 0.7 2.0 1.4 11.0 30.1 17.6 2.2 3.8 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 81 19 0 100 2.9 3.7 2.6 20.2 32.9 20.9 3.7 9.5 22.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 1.7 3.3 2.1 24.0 37.0 22.7 1.2 6.9 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------