***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 16.4 18.8 17.4 3.2 89.2 86.6 13.8 15.3 15.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 16.3 16.9 17.2 2.9 87.1 84.3 14.2 14.6 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 16.8 18.5 17.6 3.0 86.6 84.0 14.5 15.7 16.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 10.7 11.5 14.4 3.0 88.0 84.8 7.9 9.1 10.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 16.8 18.5 15.9 3.0 86.3 84.0 14.2 15.6 16.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 16.6 17.9 14.9 3.1 87.1 84.0 12.9 15.1 15.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 15.9 17.0 17.0 2.9 86.1 84.2 13.9 14.5 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 8.6 9.3 15.1 3.1 86.3 84.0 5.8 7.0 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 17.1 19.1 16.7 3.0 86.7 84.1 14.4 16.1 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 16.4 18.8 15.9 3.3 87.5 84.8 13.9 15.7 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 17.0 19.0 16.3 3.0 85.9 83.0 13.9 16.0 16.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 17.0 18.2 15.8 3.1 86.2 84.1 13.3 15.5 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 17.3 18.6 15.9 3.0 85.9 83.5 14.0 15.9 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 17.3 17.5 16.6 2.8 84.0 81.2 14.7 16.4 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 15.9 16.6 15.7 2.9 87.1 84.4 13.5 14.2 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 17.6 19.4 15.9 3.1 86.6 83.9 14.5 16.6 17.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 15.3 16.0 16.7 2.7 85.7 83.5 13.6 14.1 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 15.9 16.8 15.8 3.3 88.0 84.9 13.2 14.8 15.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 16.5 16.9 17.4 2.9 86.0 83.5 14.2 15.2 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 13.9 14.6 13.9 3.1 88.3 84.6 10.9 12.9 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 16.8 18.6 17.1 2.9 86.6 84.0 14.5 15.6 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 15.9 17.0 16.7 2.7 85.6 82.7 14.0 15.0 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 16.5 17.0 17.4 2.7 83.3 81.2 13.8 15.5 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 17.2 18.6 16.9 3.1 86.6 83.6 14.9 16.3 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 16.2 17.7 16.0 3.1 88.2 85.6 13.6 14.8 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 17.2 18.4 15.2 3.0 87.5 84.9 13.7 15.7 16.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 16.5 18.9 16.9 3.2 89.4 86.7 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 16.4 16.9 15.1 2.9 87.1 84.2 13.8 14.9 16.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 13.0 14.3 15.1 3.2 87.6 84.1 9.8 12.0 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 16.0 17.5 17.3 3.0 87.4 84.7 14.1 14.6 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------