***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 13.5 13.2 12.9 1.1 56.3 58.2 11.2 13.0 13.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.5 12.7 0.9 59.0 57.2 11.2 11.9 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 13.5 13.8 13.1 0.9 58.0 57.0 11.1 13.0 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 6.4 6.1 10.5 1.0 56.7 57.1 4.7 5.9 7.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.2 11.5 1.0 55.9 56.1 10.8 12.7 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 13.0 13.0 11.0 1.3 57.7 58.5 10.3 12.4 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.5 12.6 0.9 59.3 57.1 10.6 11.8 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.8 11.0 1.1 56.2 57.1 3.8 5.6 7.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 13.7 13.9 12.1 1.0 57.2 56.0 11.7 13.0 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.7 11.5 1.1 56.7 56.7 11.4 12.4 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.4 11.8 1.1 57.1 57.1 11.2 12.8 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.9 13.2 11.6 1.2 57.7 57.8 11.0 12.2 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 13.2 14.0 11.4 1.4 60.3 59.5 10.6 12.4 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.8 14.2 12.1 0.8 56.2 54.9 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 11.9 12.3 11.1 1.0 57.8 58.1 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.7 11.6 1.3 59.0 58.7 11.2 13.6 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 12.0 12.1 12.4 0.8 58.2 56.8 10.3 11.6 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.2 11.5 1.1 55.5 56.5 10.1 10.8 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.8 13.4 12.9 0.9 58.5 56.9 11.1 12.3 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.7 9.8 1.3 56.9 58.0 8.1 10.2 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 13.5 13.1 12.5 0.9 56.5 56.1 11.2 12.9 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 12.7 13.1 12.4 0.8 58.9 56.7 10.5 12.3 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.1 13.1 13.0 0.8 57.7 55.7 10.8 12.6 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.1 13.7 12.3 1.0 56.1 56.1 12.0 13.6 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 12.8 12.8 11.5 1.1 57.0 57.6 10.1 12.4 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 13.0 14.1 11.2 1.3 60.7 60.5 10.4 12.5 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 13.3 13.5 12.5 1.2 58.0 58.6 10.8 12.7 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 12.4 12.2 10.9 1.1 57.1 57.4 10.5 12.1 13.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.8 10.9 1.1 54.9 56.5 7.1 9.0 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 12.6 12.9 12.8 1.0 59.3 57.5 10.9 12.2 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------