***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-03.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 17.1 17.6 16.0 2.7 77.3 71.2 12.8 15.2 16.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 15.5 16.0 15.8 2.5 77.4 70.4 13.0 14.3 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 17.9 19.0 16.3 2.6 76.0 69.8 12.9 15.6 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 12.0 12.4 13.6 2.6 76.5 69.7 6.9 9.6 11.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 17.5 18.7 14.6 2.6 74.9 68.9 13.5 14.7 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 17.0 16.1 13.4 2.4 68.3 66.2 13.7 14.9 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 15.4 15.9 15.7 2.4 76.6 70.0 12.7 14.0 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 9.4 9.1 14.0 2.8 74.1 69.2 6.4 7.7 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 18.0 19.0 15.4 2.8 75.9 69.7 13.2 15.4 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 17.8 18.8 14.8 3.0 75.4 69.9 13.1 14.8 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 18.0 18.6 14.9 2.7 75.0 68.9 13.5 15.2 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 17.7 18.0 14.6 2.6 72.9 68.9 13.3 15.4 16.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 18.1 17.4 14.0 2.5 71.1 68.4 13.9 15.4 16.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 18.7 19.6 15.5 2.6 75.6 68.4 11.7 16.6 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 15.9 16.6 14.1 2.5 77.2 69.7 13.0 14.6 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 18.6 19.0 14.5 2.7 74.1 68.6 14.8 15.7 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 14.7 15.0 15.4 2.3 74.9 69.3 12.2 13.3 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 16.1 17.3 14.8 3.0 75.9 69.9 12.1 13.3 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 16.3 17.1 16.1 2.5 77.5 70.1 12.4 14.6 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 14.9 14.9 12.6 2.7 73.3 69.2 10.7 12.4 13.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 17.4 18.3 15.7 2.6 75.4 69.6 12.9 15.5 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 15.9 16.3 15.4 2.3 75.1 69.4 12.3 14.3 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 16.7 17.4 16.3 2.5 76.6 68.9 12.1 15.0 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 18.2 18.7 15.6 2.8 76.4 69.5 12.6 15.8 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 15.6 16.2 14.5 2.6 76.8 70.6 13.1 14.0 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 17.4 17.3 13.7 2.3 70.2 68.7 13.4 15.4 16.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 17.2 18.3 15.5 2.7 77.6 71.3 13.2 14.6 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 17.1 17.8 13.9 2.6 76.4 69.1 12.7 15.5 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 14.2 14.2 14.0 2.8 74.1 69.2 9.4 12.1 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 15.5 16.2 15.9 2.5 78.0 70.6 12.9 14.1 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------