***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 18.3 19.7 18.4 3.2 84.8 78.3 14.3 14.9 17.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 18.1 19.0 18.3 3.1 81.3 77.3 14.0 15.3 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 19.0 20.0 18.5 2.9 80.4 75.3 15.0 16.2 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 11.7 13.7 15.2 2.8 80.6 74.4 6.5 8.8 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 18.6 19.2 16.7 2.7 77.3 72.6 14.6 16.2 17.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 17.9 18.6 15.5 2.7 75.5 71.9 13.8 15.8 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 18.1 19.2 18.1 3.0 83.1 77.3 13.6 15.3 17.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 9.6 10.2 15.9 2.8 76.5 72.6 6.1 7.6 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 19.1 19.9 17.6 2.8 79.1 73.6 14.7 16.7 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 18.6 19.7 16.7 3.0 79.1 73.7 13.9 16.2 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 19.2 20.0 17.2 2.7 76.7 71.5 14.4 16.8 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 18.7 19.3 16.6 2.7 76.3 72.7 14.0 16.8 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 19.1 20.1 16.9 2.7 76.2 72.1 14.6 16.9 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 19.4 19.9 17.6 2.7 77.3 72.1 14.8 16.7 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 16.6 17.7 16.8 2.8 81.4 74.9 13.5 14.7 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 19.6 20.4 16.8 2.7 77.0 72.3 15.1 17.6 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 17.6 18.5 17.8 3.0 82.3 77.3 13.1 15.1 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 17.3 18.4 16.5 3.1 79.4 74.0 12.9 15.1 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 18.1 19.2 18.4 3.0 79.8 76.0 14.2 15.5 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 15.1 15.8 14.6 2.8 76.9 73.1 11.0 13.0 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 18.9 19.6 18.0 2.7 79.0 73.6 14.4 16.4 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 18.6 20.1 17.8 2.9 81.4 76.1 14.2 15.5 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 18.4 19.1 18.4 2.7 77.2 73.2 14.4 15.9 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 19.5 20.6 17.8 3.0 79.2 73.7 14.4 17.2 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 18.2 19.0 16.9 3.0 82.4 76.4 13.9 15.0 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 18.6 18.9 15.9 2.6 75.1 73.1 14.5 16.7 18.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 18.6 20.4 17.9 3.2 84.8 78.3 14.4 15.5 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 17.0 18.9 16.0 2.7 79.9 73.8 13.3 14.6 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 14.2 14.8 15.8 2.9 77.3 73.0 10.3 12.5 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 18.4 19.4 18.4 3.1 81.6 77.3 13.8 15.1 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------