***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 20.4 21.5 22.2 5.8 92.9 91.2 15.3 17.7 19.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 19.9 20.3 21.9 5.3 87.4 87.5 16.3 17.8 19.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 20.2 20.7 22.3 5.5 89.2 87.9 17.3 18.6 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 13.8 15.4 18.4 5.4 90.9 88.5 9.2 10.6 12.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 20.8 22.3 20.7 5.6 90.9 89.3 16.4 18.4 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 20.7 21.9 19.7 6.0 91.7 91.4 15.4 17.2 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 19.8 20.1 21.6 5.1 86.1 86.8 15.9 17.5 18.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 11.9 13.6 19.7 5.8 91.4 89.9 7.4 8.3 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 20.9 22.1 21.6 5.6 91.0 89.6 16.8 18.6 20.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 20.3 21.7 20.6 6.0 92.3 91.0 16.3 18.1 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 21.2 22.0 21.3 5.5 90.2 88.3 16.7 18.2 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 20.3 21.6 20.5 5.7 90.6 89.5 15.8 18.1 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 20.8 22.0 21.2 5.5 89.3 87.5 16.4 18.4 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 20.6 21.1 21.2 5.0 87.4 85.9 17.5 19.7 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 19.2 19.7 20.6 5.1 88.0 86.4 15.1 16.7 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 21.5 23.2 20.8 5.6 90.6 89.2 17.2 18.7 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 19.2 19.9 21.1 4.9 86.6 86.0 15.3 17.5 18.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 19.8 20.3 20.3 6.1 93.4 91.1 15.8 17.9 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 19.8 20.0 22.1 5.2 86.4 86.4 16.1 18.1 19.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 18.1 19.7 18.5 5.8 92.9 91.0 13.0 14.5 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 2 98 100 20.3 21.6 22.1 5.5 90.4 88.9 16.8 18.3 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 19.8 20.7 21.1 4.7 87.5 85.6 16.4 18.4 19.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 20.0 20.3 21.8 4.8 83.6 82.9 16.4 18.5 19.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 20.4 21.5 21.7 5.6 91.4 89.0 17.2 18.9 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 19.7 21.1 20.9 5.6 90.8 89.5 15.7 17.2 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 20.3 22.8 19.9 5.6 91.3 89.7 16.4 17.2 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 20.3 22.3 21.7 5.7 92.8 90.9 16.7 17.9 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 19.9 21.3 19.5 5.3 89.9 87.8 15.2 16.8 19.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 16.6 17.9 19.8 5.9 92.7 90.7 12.5 14.2 15.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 19.9 20.4 22.1 5.4 87.6 87.7 16.0 17.6 19.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------