***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 6.0 7.2 9.2 2.4 87.6 82.7 4.1 5.0 5.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 5.4 6.9 8.6 2.2 86.7 81.5 4.0 4.8 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 7.5 8.8 9.1 2.2 87.7 82.9 6.5 6.9 7.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 2.9 4.5 6.4 2.2 88.3 82.8 1.2 1.9 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 5.0 5.9 7.1 2.2 87.2 81.9 3.4 4.3 4.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 4.3 5.8 5.1 2.2 89.6 83.2 2.6 3.4 4.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 5.4 6.6 8.5 2.1 87.2 80.4 4.0 4.8 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 1.0 1.7 5.2 2.1 89.5 81.9 -1.0 -0.5 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 5.8 6.6 7.2 2.1 87.4 81.5 4.6 4.9 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 5.3 6.6 5.8 2.1 88.8 81.6 4.0 4.9 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 5.2 5.9 6.4 2.0 87.3 80.6 3.8 4.3 4.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 4.3 5.6 5.9 2.1 89.2 81.7 2.6 3.2 3.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 4.5 5.9 5.4 1.9 86.8 78.9 3.2 3.9 4.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 6.0 6.5 6.9 2.0 84.7 80.4 5.1 5.3 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 5.4 6.3 7.3 1.9 87.1 80.4 3.9 4.7 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 6.0 6.6 5.9 2.0 86.4 79.9 4.4 5.0 5.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 5.5 6.4 8.3 2.1 86.3 81.2 4.2 4.8 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 3.9 4.5 5.3 2.1 87.6 81.3 3.2 3.6 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 5.7 6.1 8.6 2.1 86.9 82.2 4.2 4.9 5.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 1.3 1.8 4.0 2.1 85.4 80.6 -0.4 0.4 1.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 5.5 6.1 8.3 2.1 87.9 81.7 4.2 4.8 5.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 5.1 5.4 8.3 2.0 85.7 81.6 3.7 4.2 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 5.6 6.1 8.5 2.1 87.0 82.4 4.2 4.8 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 4.8 5.5 6.8 2.0 87.2 81.4 4.1 4.3 4.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 6.2 7.0 8.3 2.4 88.2 83.3 4.3 5.0 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 5.3 6.1 5.4 2.1 88.3 81.9 3.6 4.0 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 6.1 7.4 8.8 2.3 87.2 81.8 3.9 4.8 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 4.2 4.9 6.4 2.0 86.8 80.9 2.5 3.2 3.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 3.8 4.8 4.7 2.0 85.3 79.9 1.9 2.8 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 5.9 6.8 8.8 2.2 87.0 81.7 4.4 5.1 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------