***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 5.7 4.8 6.3 1.2 63.7 61.2 2.1 3.7 5.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 3.6 4.1 5.8 1.0 60.0 60.0 1.8 2.9 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 6.7 6.2 6.3 1.2 64.3 62.1 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 1.5 1.4 3.8 1.3 64.8 62.4 -1.0 0.3 1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 3.2 4.5 4.2 1.3 64.9 61.7 1.0 2.7 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 3.4 3.3 2.6 1.4 62.2 62.8 0.7 2.6 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 3.5 3.5 5.8 0.9 58.9 58.7 2.1 3.0 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 0.2 -0.3 2.8 1.4 65.0 63.5 -3.2 -0.9 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 5.5 4.4 4.6 1.3 66.4 62.0 2.4 3.7 4.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 5.0 4.6 3.4 1.4 66.8 63.2 1.9 3.2 4.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 4.5 4.4 3.8 1.3 66.1 62.6 1.4 2.9 4.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 3.5 2.8 3.2 1.4 64.6 63.1 0.6 2.1 2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 2.6 3.5 3.0 1.4 62.9 62.2 1.0 2.0 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 4.4 5.1 4.5 1.3 64.8 63.0 2.9 3.9 5.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 4.8 3.8 4.7 1.2 65.4 62.8 1.5 3.0 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 4.2 4.5 3.3 1.4 64.5 62.3 2.3 3.6 4.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 3.8 3.6 5.5 0.8 57.8 58.6 1.8 3.4 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 3.5 2.9 2.8 1.5 66.6 63.6 0.8 1.8 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 4.0 4.6 5.9 1.1 61.8 61.2 2.0 3.5 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 1.3 0.4 1.7 1.6 63.6 63.3 -2.1 -1.3 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 5.0 4.0 5.7 1.3 64.9 62.3 1.6 3.3 4.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 3.1 3.5 5.5 1.0 60.6 60.0 1.7 2.5 3.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 3.7 4.4 5.9 1.2 64.2 62.4 2.1 3.1 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 4.4 4.0 4.2 1.4 66.6 63.5 1.9 2.9 3.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 3.8 4.5 5.3 1.3 64.4 62.0 1.7 3.0 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 3.1 3.9 2.8 1.4 62.1 62.7 1.5 2.6 4.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 4.1 3.8 5.9 1.2 61.8 60.8 1.6 3.3 4.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 3.2 2.9 3.8 1.2 64.0 61.9 0.3 1.2 2.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 2.7 2.7 2.5 1.5 65.7 63.2 -0.1 0.9 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 4.0 4.3 6.0 1.1 61.4 60.4 2.1 3.3 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------