***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-03.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 6.2 6.6 8.2 2.0 72.1 67.1 3.4 4.4 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 5.9 6.3 7.7 2.0 71.7 67.5 2.7 4.2 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 8.0 8.3 8.2 2.0 74.4 68.9 5.6 6.6 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 3.8 3.3 5.4 1.8 69.6 67.2 0.6 1.7 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 4.7 5.0 5.8 1.8 69.2 67.3 1.8 3.1 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 3.9 3.9 4.0 1.8 67.0 66.3 1.4 2.2 3.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 5.5 6.0 7.7 1.9 71.0 66.9 2.8 4.4 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 0.8 1.0 4.3 1.9 70.7 67.2 -0.9 0.0 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 5.9 6.0 6.3 1.9 71.2 68.0 3.2 4.5 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 5.8 5.8 5.0 2.0 71.4 67.7 2.6 4.1 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 5.2 5.1 5.3 1.8 69.5 66.7 2.6 3.5 4.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 4.9 4.2 4.8 1.8 69.9 66.6 1.3 2.6 3.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 5.1 3.4 4.4 1.7 68.4 65.8 1.9 2.6 3.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 6.4 6.5 6.4 2.1 74.4 69.0 3.8 5.2 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 6.3 6.4 6.3 1.8 72.0 67.9 3.4 4.6 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 5.8 5.5 4.8 1.7 68.2 65.9 3.0 4.0 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 5.6 5.9 7.5 1.9 70.6 67.3 2.9 4.6 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 4.3 4.4 4.4 2.0 71.7 67.6 1.1 2.5 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 6.0 6.0 7.8 2.0 73.8 68.6 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 1.0 1.0 3.2 2.0 69.6 66.5 -1.2 -0.4 0.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 5.7 5.8 7.4 2.0 71.3 68.1 2.8 4.3 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 5.3 5.4 7.5 2.0 73.5 68.9 2.6 4.0 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 5.9 6.4 7.8 2.1 75.3 69.8 3.1 4.6 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 5.6 5.2 5.9 2.0 73.6 69.0 2.5 4.3 4.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 5.9 5.7 7.0 2.0 71.7 67.4 2.0 5.0 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 4.9 4.6 4.3 1.8 68.2 66.8 1.9 3.0 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 6.2 6.6 7.7 2.0 71.1 66.8 2.8 4.4 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 4.3 3.6 5.4 1.8 69.7 67.2 2.0 2.8 3.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 4.5 4.1 4.1 2.0 70.5 67.0 1.2 2.6 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 6.2 6.9 7.9 2.0 72.5 67.6 3.6 4.3 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------