***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 7.3 8.3 10.3 2.6 77.6 73.8 3.7 5.2 7.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 7.7 8.1 9.7 2.4 76.5 73.6 4.0 5.6 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 9.2 10.1 10.2 2.4 77.7 74.4 5.2 7.2 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 4.3 4.4 7.1 2.2 72.9 72.0 0.5 1.8 3.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 6.6 7.3 8.2 2.3 73.6 72.0 3.8 4.7 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 6.1 6.2 5.9 2.1 74.9 72.4 3.3 4.2 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 7.2 7.8 9.7 2.4 77.7 72.8 3.8 5.7 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 2.5 3.0 6.2 2.2 75.5 73.0 -1.3 0.5 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 8.1 8.8 8.3 2.3 75.1 73.4 4.3 5.7 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 7.1 7.6 6.9 2.2 75.4 73.4 4.0 5.2 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 6.6 7.0 7.6 2.1 73.6 71.8 3.7 5.5 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 6.1 6.7 6.9 2.1 73.7 71.8 2.8 4.0 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 6.4 6.5 6.5 1.9 71.4 69.7 3.7 5.6 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 7.8 8.3 8.1 2.2 76.2 73.3 4.4 6.0 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 5.8 6.3 8.3 2.0 74.9 71.2 4.0 4.8 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 7.4 7.9 6.9 2.0 72.3 70.7 4.7 6.0 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 7.3 7.9 9.4 2.4 76.5 72.9 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 6.4 6.9 6.3 2.2 75.7 72.9 3.3 4.2 5.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 7.7 8.4 9.7 2.4 76.7 73.7 3.8 5.8 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 3.5 3.8 5.0 2.1 75.4 72.3 -0.2 2.2 3.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 7.4 8.1 9.4 2.3 75.7 73.2 4.0 5.6 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 6.8 7.3 9.3 2.2 75.9 72.9 2.9 5.4 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 7.3 8.1 9.6 2.2 76.8 73.6 3.7 5.1 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 7.2 7.9 8.0 2.2 76.3 73.3 3.7 5.0 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 7.4 8.2 9.4 2.5 76.3 73.3 4.3 5.6 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 6.5 6.8 6.4 1.9 72.5 70.2 4.4 5.2 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 7.9 9.0 9.8 2.5 76.3 72.3 4.0 5.7 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 5.2 5.2 7.2 2.0 71.9 70.4 3.5 4.0 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 5.7 6.4 5.8 2.2 76.0 73.2 1.2 2.9 6.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 7.9 8.6 10.0 2.5 77.6 74.0 3.9 6.1 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------