***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-10.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 55.5 119.4 65.6 61.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 39.8 46.4 53.2 117.0 67.5 59.3 23.6 34.7 45.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 54.7 58.8 58.4 124.8 69.7 62.8 27.4 37.8 55.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 45.2 56.6 64.5 122.4 65.7 62.7 30.4 39.7 57.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 43.6 47.8 63.0 124.8 66.8 63.6 28.1 39.4 47.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 34.9 37.7 65.1 115.1 69.1 60.2 19.5 30.6 37.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 30.6 41.9 52.1 115.8 66.0 59.0 19.8 24.1 41.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 52.3 72.5 65.6 120.5 68.7 62.6 30.8 46.4 71.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 50.8 47.8 62.4 124.2 68.4 63.6 24.6 39.6 44.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 55.8 58.9 67.5 125.7 70.9 65.1 31.0 41.0 58.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 39.1 50.8 58.8 122.9 67.4 62.9 21.9 34.3 50.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 35.0 53.3 57.2 118.9 67.3 61.7 22.1 29.0 49.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 47.8 48.4 61.6 118.0 72.4 61.5 25.4 38.8 48.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 64.7 72.5 70.6 128.4 69.0 64.8 46.9 61.0 71.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 30.5 42.2 66.0 119.1 68.1 62.1 15.5 24.5 37.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 32.9 47.7 59.4 119.8 66.5 61.8 19.5 26.8 47.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 38.7 63.1 50.5 115.8 65.7 58.7 20.3 29.6 63.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 47.7 55.9 74.9 125.8 67.6 65.4 32.6 44.8 54.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 44.2 57.3 54.9 119.0 68.6 60.0 28.3 36.4 50.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 59.7 62.3 84.8 114.3 61.6 59.8 35.0 54.0 67.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 51.6 51.8 59.4 125.8 69.2 63.8 23.6 35.5 47.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 48.5 54.1 52.9 117.0 66.4 59.8 26.3 44.0 53.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 50.9 61.6 58.5 122.7 69.3 61.5 34.5 43.8 54.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 59.1 57.6 68.9 128.3 68.8 65.3 39.9 50.0 54.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 40.6 51.7 61.8 119.9 65.9 62.1 19.3 32.4 52.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 40.9 43.1 57.7 111.0 68.0 58.5 27.6 37.9 42.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 38.9 51.1 58.1 116.1 66.0 60.1 21.7 33.4 51.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 36.4 40.8 64.3 121.2 67.3 62.5 13.6 33.2 40.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 66.9 77.2 78.7 121.3 65.4 63.2 45.0 60.0 77.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 37.0 44.2 54.5 118.0 67.6 60.0 25.4 32.3 43.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------