***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-10.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 9.5 89.4 57.3 50.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.4 13.8 8.9 86.4 58.3 49.2 3.5 6.9 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.9 12.7 9.2 88.5 56.9 50.7 3.8 9.9 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.2 15.2 10.5 97.6 63.6 51.7 1.6 5.8 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.7 10.8 107.3 64.7 54.1 2.2 8.1 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.7 13.1 12.1 104.6 64.9 52.7 1.3 6.9 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.8 11.4 9.0 89.0 58.4 49.2 2.3 8.6 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.4 24.4 12.4 118.1 64.9 54.5 5.8 10.2 25.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.4 15.2 10.6 103.6 62.2 53.3 1.3 6.9 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 13.6 17.3 11.9 111.8 64.7 53.9 2.0 11.0 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.5 14.6 10.6 114.1 66.1 54.3 1.4 8.9 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.0 14.8 10.8 116.9 64.6 54.6 3.4 8.3 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.9 17.4 11.7 114.3 66.4 54.8 3.0 10.9 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.2 15.5 11.4 94.6 60.5 50.4 4.9 12.4 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.9 9.5 10.3 91.0 63.0 51.4 1.0 4.1 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.4 15.3 10.8 112.1 67.4 54.1 2.1 8.0 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.9 13.3 8.9 89.8 62.4 49.2 2.7 7.7 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.2 18.7 13.0 109.2 64.8 53.9 4.0 11.3 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.0 13.4 8.9 86.5 59.1 49.4 2.5 8.5 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.2 17.0 17.2 118.7 64.2 55.2 6.5 9.3 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.0 11.3 10.1 100.1 62.6 53.9 2.1 7.8 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.2 17.3 9.4 92.6 65.3 50.8 2.5 8.5 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.4 10.1 9.3 88.8 61.5 49.8 2.2 8.9 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.2 14.1 10.9 96.5 60.7 51.6 4.1 9.6 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 8.3 9.1 11.1 97.9 60.6 53.4 1.5 5.8 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.1 11.1 10.9 107.5 65.6 55.3 2.2 5.5 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.0 10.5 93.6 58.7 51.9 4.6 8.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.1 8.6 10.3 97.7 65.1 51.8 0.9 3.0 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.7 25.2 14.1 110.4 63.3 53.9 6.9 19.3 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.2 12.8 8.9 85.7 56.4 49.2 1.9 7.9 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------