***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.6 71.9 50.2 42.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.2 3.1 10.0 73.0 51.2 44.2 0.8 2.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 1.5 3.7 10.0 71.4 50.7 42.8 0.3 3.2 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 6.5 4.9 11.6 78.4 51.8 43.3 1.9 4.3 9.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.2 4.0 11.2 75.4 50.1 44.1 0.4 4.0 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 3.8 2.7 13.8 87.4 55.7 47.0 0.3 2.6 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 1.6 4.0 9.8 73.2 51.6 43.6 0.6 3.9 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 7.0 5.1 12.0 71.4 49.2 42.4 1.0 5.3 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 4.6 1.9 11.0 72.1 48.5 42.7 0.1 2.2 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 6.7 5.0 11.5 70.4 49.2 42.0 0.7 5.1 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 4.2 3.2 10.2 71.1 51.6 43.5 0.3 2.7 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.5 3.4 10.9 74.8 50.6 43.9 0.5 3.3 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 4.9 3.8 12.5 83.9 51.2 46.9 0.4 3.3 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.3 8.5 12.2 72.9 48.8 42.7 1.1 8.9 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 3.1 1.8 12.1 80.2 54.3 44.7 0.2 1.5 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 2.9 3.1 11.3 78.2 52.8 45.5 0.3 1.9 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.3 3.3 10.7 81.0 55.2 45.1 0.5 2.8 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 5.9 3.9 13.4 73.8 48.3 42.7 1.7 4.2 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.8 3.9 10.1 72.5 50.8 44.4 0.7 3.9 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.6 3.3 17.5 77.5 47.1 43.6 0.9 3.6 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.1 4.1 10.2 71.0 49.0 42.3 0.4 4.2 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 6.4 3.9 11.4 86.2 54.3 46.7 0.7 3.2 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.9 3.8 10.3 71.1 51.6 44.0 1.2 3.3 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.1 6.0 11.5 70.8 48.3 41.8 1.1 6.3 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 1.8 5.0 11.6 77.9 53.8 44.7 1.1 3.7 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 3.9 2.6 12.7 85.8 50.6 46.7 0.4 2.5 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.0 5.6 10.9 75.9 52.1 44.3 0.2 4.4 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.3 11.7 79.0 53.4 44.1 0.2 2.9 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.9 5.4 15.1 75.8 48.7 42.7 2.5 8.4 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.3 3.3 9.9 72.0 50.9 43.9 1.0 2.9 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------