***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.9 75.7 52.9 40.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.1 7.0 11.1 96.8 59.1 45.2 0.5 4.9 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.8 7.0 10.5 91.1 55.3 43.9 2.8 6.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 3.3 8.0 9.4 71.8 50.1 39.0 2.1 8.0 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.3 8.0 10.8 87.1 55.1 43.1 3.2 7.6 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 1.7 4.4 10.6 74.2 50.9 40.0 1.2 4.3 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 1.8 5.9 11.1 95.6 59.3 45.6 1.8 4.1 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 4.7 10.5 11.7 85.6 52.6 42.3 4.4 9.9 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.2 7.8 11.5 95.0 56.3 45.3 3.4 7.3 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 3.9 10.0 12.2 91.8 54.9 44.1 3.6 8.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.6 7.9 9.7 82.8 53.8 41.9 2.3 5.9 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 2.7 6.6 9.6 83.3 53.9 41.3 2.1 6.1 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.1 7.5 10.4 81.6 53.9 41.1 2.7 6.4 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 4.6 12.5 13.4 100.0 57.0 45.1 5.7 10.9 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.2 5.0 9.7 70.3 50.9 39.7 1.5 4.7 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 1.8 5.2 9.9 80.6 53.9 41.5 3.0 4.3 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.1 6.1 11.2 96.1 60.1 46.5 1.1 2.3 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.2 9.4 14.6 95.1 54.8 45.3 3.3 6.8 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.6 10.8 11.1 97.3 58.6 45.2 2.0 5.8 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 3.6 10.0 17.8 87.7 55.0 44.2 4.1 7.9 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.0 7.7 10.2 90.0 55.0 43.7 2.7 5.9 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.7 11.2 11.2 92.1 57.3 46.0 0.8 5.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.9 13.5 11.8 101.1 60.5 45.7 3.5 9.1 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 3.3 10.8 13.1 98.4 56.1 45.2 5.0 8.0 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 1.8 4.8 10.5 81.3 54.5 43.9 1.4 3.5 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.5 8.7 9.3 74.5 50.4 38.3 2.7 8.6 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 1.3 3.6 9.9 77.1 54.5 42.5 1.0 2.9 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.7 7.3 9.4 70.9 50.6 39.2 1.7 7.3 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 4.3 11.4 16.5 95.6 55.6 45.7 5.8 8.6 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.2 8.6 10.7 92.7 58.1 44.1 1.2 5.3 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------